Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0% 41.1%
3.75% 23.0%
4.25% 19.8%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,795,529 Vol.
$6,795,529 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
23%
4.0%
41%
4.25%
20%
≥ 4.5%
5%
4.0% 41.1%
3.75% 23.0%
4.25% 19.8%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,795,529 Vol.
$6,795,529 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$251,885 Vol.
1%
1.25
$149,914 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$147,387 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,973 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$265,101 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,877 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$175,659 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$62,261 Vol.
<1%
3.0%
$489,647 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$67,053 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$203,389 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$533,159 Vol.
23%
4.0%
$1,370,913 Vol.
41%
4.25%
$430,797 Vol.
20%
≥ 4.5%
$2,409,514 Vol.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,795,529End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,795,529End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions