**ADI holds a strong implied probability of finishing second in the September 27, 2026, São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election.** Recent political fragmentation and the July presidential results have shaped trader views on the likely seat ordering under the closed-list proportional representation system across the seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. The incumbent ADI, which secured 30 of 55 seats in 2022, remains the largest party by organization and current representation despite internal divisions. A January 2025 dismissal of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada, followed by Américo Ramos assuming the premiership and later the ADI leadership via a contested congress validated by the Constitutional Court in July 2026, has split the party. President Carlos Vila Nova’s independent re-election in July—with explicit MLSTP–PSD backing—further isolated the ADI faction aligned with Trovoada. These dynamics position ADI as the consensus choice for second place, while MLSTP–PSD and smaller parties such as MCI/PS–PUN, Basta, and others trail at much lower probabilities. The short campaign window before the vote and ongoing coalition negotiations after the presidential contest remain the primary variables that could still influence final rankings.