The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEvair de Melo 48%
Marcos do Val 45%
Maguinha Malta 42%
Rodney Miranda 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Evair de Melo
48%
Marcos do Val
45%
Maguinha Malta
42%
Rodney Miranda
41%
Sergio Meneguelli
41%
Callegari
29%
Leonardo Monjardim
29%
Fabiano Contarato
25%
Professor Fabian
25%
Renato Casagrande
17%
Rose de Freitas
16%
Evair de Melo 48%
Marcos do Val 45%
Maguinha Malta 42%
Rodney Miranda 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Evair de Melo
$0 Vol.
48%
Marcos do Val
$0 Vol.
45%
Maguinha Malta
$0 Vol.
42%
Rodney Miranda
$0 Vol.
41%
Sergio Meneguelli
$0 Vol.
41%
Callegari
$0 Vol.
29%
Leonardo Monjardim
$0 Vol.
29%
Fabiano Contarato
$0 Vol.
25%
Professor Fabian
$0 Vol.
25%
Renato Casagrande
$0 Vol.
17%
Rose de Freitas
$0 Vol.
16%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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