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icon for São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place

Geraldo Rufino 87%

Petter Maahs 87%

William Teixeira 87%

Guilherme Derrite 87%

Polymarket
NEW

Geraldo Rufino 87%

Petter Maahs 87%

William Teixeira 87%

Guilherme Derrite 87%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$0 Vol.

87%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$0 Vol.

87%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$0 Vol.

87%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$0 Vol.

87%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$0 Vol.

87%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$0 Vol.

87%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Salles

Salles

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$20 Vol.

8%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo voters will elect two senators in October 2026, and recent polls show a tight contest for the second seat among Marina Silva (Rede), Simone Tebet (PSB), Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo). Official campaigning began in mid-August amid high undecided and blank/null shares that compress margins between frontrunners and challengers. Fragmented party support, varying rejection rates, and the absence of a dominant coalition keep the ordering fluid. Trader consensus reflects this parity, with small shifts in polling averages or turnout among key blocs likely to reorder the field before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo voters will elect two senators in October 2026, and recent polls show a tight contest for the second seat among Marina Silva (Rede), Simone Tebet (PSB), Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo). Official campaigning began in mid-August amid high undecided and blank/null shares that compress margins between frontrunners and challengers. Fragmented party support, varying rejection rates, and the absence of a dominant coalition keep the ordering fluid. Trader consensus reflects this parity, with small shifts in polling averages or turnout among key blocs likely to reorder the field before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dra. Eliana Ferreira" at 45%, followed by "Geraldo Rufino" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Dra. Eliana Ferreira" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Geraldo Rufino" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.