The three-day State Duma election, concluding September 20, 2026, features United Russia as the incumbent ruling party aligned with President Putin amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Exit polls placed its party-list share at 53.5%, aligning with state pollster forecasts of 47–53% and Kremlin regional targets above 50%. Pre-election independent surveys showed lower support around 35–38% among decided voters, but administrative resources, media dominance, single-mandate district advantages, and high-turnout mobilization in loyal regions have historically lifted official results. Exclusion of anti-war options such as Yabloko from the federal ballot further consolidated the field among systemic parties. These dynamics position the 50–55% band as the leading trader consensus, with modest probability on higher bands reflecting expectations of typical post-election adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50-55% 49%
45-50% 24%
55-60% 20%
60%+ 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
<1%
40-45%
2%
45-50%
24%
50-55%
49%
55-60%
20%
60%+
15%
50-55% 49%
45-50% 24%
55-60% 20%
60%+ 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
$146 Vol.
<1%
40-45%
$239 Vol.
2%
45-50%
$1,074 Vol.
24%
50-55%
$1,013 Vol.
49%
55-60%
$925 Vol.
20%
60%+
$2,648 Vol.
15%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The three-day State Duma election, concluding September 20, 2026, features United Russia as the incumbent ruling party aligned with President Putin amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Exit polls placed its party-list share at 53.5%, aligning with state pollster forecasts of 47–53% and Kremlin regional targets above 50%. Pre-election independent surveys showed lower support around 35–38% among decided voters, but administrative resources, media dominance, single-mandate district advantages, and high-turnout mobilization in loyal regions have historically lifted official results. Exclusion of anti-war options such as Yabloko from the federal ballot further consolidated the field among systemic parties. These dynamics position the 50–55% band as the leading trader consensus, with modest probability on higher bands reflecting expectations of typical post-election adjustments.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$6,044End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The three-day State Duma election, concluding September 20, 2026, features United Russia as the incumbent ruling party aligned with President Putin amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Exit polls placed its party-list share at 53.5%, aligning with state pollster forecasts of 47–53% and Kremlin regional targets above 50%. Pre-election independent surveys showed lower support around 35–38% among decided voters, but administrative resources, media dominance, single-mandate district advantages, and high-turnout mobilization in loyal regions have historically lifted official results. Exclusion of anti-war options such as Yabloko from the federal ballot further consolidated the field among systemic parties. These dynamics position the 50–55% band as the leading trader consensus, with modest probability on higher bands reflecting expectations of typical post-election adjustments.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$6,044End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The three-day State Duma election, concluding September 20, 2026, features United Russia as the incumbent ruling party aligned with President Putin amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Exit polls placed its party-list share at 53.5%, aligning with state pollster forecasts of 47–53% and Kremlin regional targets above 50%. Pre-election independent surveys showed lower support around 35–38% among decided voters, but administrative resources, media dominance, single-mandate district advantages, and high-turnout mobilization in loyal regions have historically lifted official results. Exclusion of anti-war options such as Yabloko from the federal ballot further consolidated the field among systemic parties. These dynamics position the 50–55% band as the leading trader consensus, with modest probability on higher bands reflecting expectations of typical post-election adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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