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icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory

Labour 15%+ 23%

Labour 10-15% 21%

Labour 5-10% 15%

Labour 0-5% 14%

Polymarket
NEW

Labour 15%+ 23%

Labour 10-15% 21%

Labour 5-10% 15%

Labour 0-5% 14%

Polymarket
NEW

Labour 15%+

$96 Vol.

22%

Labour 10-15%

$100 Vol.

21%

Labour 5-10%

$60 Vol.

15%

Labour 0-5%

$70 Vol.

14%

Green 0-5%

$60 Vol.

11%

Green 5-10%

$60 Vol.

13%

Green 10-15%

$79 Vol.

13%

Green 15%+

$60 Vol.

5%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Trader pricing places non-Labour victory at 50 percent because the seat’s 2024 left-wing vote split and recent Camden local gains for the Greens create conditions for a narrow upset on October 8. Polanski’s selection, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement and the party’s strengthened local organization, underpins the combined 42 percent probability across Green margin bands. Labour’s position rests on its unbroken hold since 1983 and Abdi-Wali’s profile as council leader, yet the 30.5 percent chance of a 15-plus point win reflects caution over lower by-election turnout and national government fatigue. Other candidates remain marginal given the two-party dynamic.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$585
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Trader pricing places non-Labour victory at 50 percent because the seat’s 2024 left-wing vote split and recent Camden local gains for the Greens create conditions for a narrow upset on October 8. Polanski’s selection, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement and the party’s strengthened local organization, underpins the combined 42 percent probability across Green margin bands. Labour’s position rests on its unbroken hold since 1983 and Abdi-Wali’s profile as council leader, yet the 30.5 percent chance of a 15-plus point win reflects caution over lower by-election turnout and national government fatigue. Other candidates remain marginal given the two-party dynamic.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$585
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Labour 15%+" at 23%, followed by "Labour 10-15%" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory" is "Labour 15%+" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Labour 10-15%" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.