Mitch McConnell has not cast a Senate vote since June 11, 2026, following hospitalization on June 14 after a fall linked to mobility issues from childhood polio. As of late July 2026, the 84-year-old Kentucky Republican remained in rehabilitation and publicly stated he would not return to the floor for votes “quite yet” on doctors’ advice, missing dozens of roll calls during this period. Traders assign a 68% probability to “No” on any vote by August 31 because his extended absence shows no clear resolution timeline before the deadline, despite the Senate’s ongoing schedule of legislation, nominations, and motions. Historical patterns of senior senators’ health recoveries and McConnell’s prior decision not to seek reelection in 2026 further shape the current consensus reflected in the market.