Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a minimum temperature for Wuhan on September 13 around 22–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds promoting gradual overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the 55 % implied probability for exactly 19 °C and 45 % for 15 °C or below likely incorporates uncertainty in local urban heat-island effects, precise timing of the daily minimum, and potential downward revisions in evening model runs. With no incoming cold-air advection or significant precipitation expected, historical September climatology supports minimums near 23 °C, yet the market pricing acknowledges residual spread across ensemble members that could produce a cooler reading before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 13?
15°C or below 90%
18°C 90%
16°C 18%
17°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
90%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
90%
19°C
-
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
15°C or below 90%
18°C 90%
16°C 18%
17°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$34 Vol.
90%
19°C
$317 Vol.
-
20°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$316 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a minimum temperature for Wuhan on September 13 around 22–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds promoting gradual overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the 55 % implied probability for exactly 19 °C and 45 % for 15 °C or below likely incorporates uncertainty in local urban heat-island effects, precise timing of the daily minimum, and potential downward revisions in evening model runs. With no incoming cold-air advection or significant precipitation expected, historical September climatology supports minimums near 23 °C, yet the market pricing acknowledges residual spread across ensemble members that could produce a cooler reading before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,230End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a minimum temperature for Wuhan on September 13 around 22–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds promoting gradual overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the 55 % implied probability for exactly 19 °C and 45 % for 15 °C or below likely incorporates uncertainty in local urban heat-island effects, precise timing of the daily minimum, and potential downward revisions in evening model runs. With no incoming cold-air advection or significant precipitation expected, historical September climatology supports minimums near 23 °C, yet the market pricing acknowledges residual spread across ensemble members that could produce a cooler reading before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,230End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a minimum temperature for Wuhan on September 13 around 22–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds promoting gradual overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the 55 % implied probability for exactly 19 °C and 45 % for 15 °C or below likely incorporates uncertainty in local urban heat-island effects, precise timing of the daily minimum, and potential downward revisions in evening model runs. With no incoming cold-air advection or significant precipitation expected, historical September climatology supports minimums near 23 °C, yet the market pricing acknowledges residual spread across ensemble members that could produce a cooler reading before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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