Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a moderating westerly flow over Poland with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible overnight into September 6, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 10–12°C in Warsaw. Recent surface observations indicate dew points near 10–12°C and sustained winds of 10–15 mph, which reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 10°C while also capping upside potential above 13°C under the current synoptic pattern. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, with resolution hinging on exact cloud cover and any localized clearing that could enhance cooling before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
8°C or below 48%
18°C or higher 42%
12°C 39%
13°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
48%
9°C
7%
10°C
22%
11°C
31%
12°C
39%
13°C
30%
14°C
15%
15°C
15%
16°C
6%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
42%
8°C or below 48%
18°C or higher 42%
12°C 39%
13°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$3 Vol.
48%
9°C
$0 Vol.
7%
10°C
$2 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
31%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$3 Vol.
30%
14°C
$0 Vol.
15%
15°C
$0 Vol.
15%
16°C
$0 Vol.
6%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a moderating westerly flow over Poland with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible overnight into September 6, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 10–12°C in Warsaw. Recent surface observations indicate dew points near 10–12°C and sustained winds of 10–15 mph, which reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 10°C while also capping upside potential above 13°C under the current synoptic pattern. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, with resolution hinging on exact cloud cover and any localized clearing that could enhance cooling before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a moderating westerly flow over Poland with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible overnight into September 6, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 10–12°C in Warsaw. Recent surface observations indicate dew points near 10–12°C and sustained winds of 10–15 mph, which reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 10°C while also capping upside potential above 13°C under the current synoptic pattern. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, with resolution hinging on exact cloud cover and any localized clearing that could enhance cooling before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a moderating westerly flow over Poland with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible overnight into September 6, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 10–12°C in Warsaw. Recent surface observations indicate dew points near 10–12°C and sustained winds of 10–15 mph, which reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 10°C while also capping upside potential above 13°C under the current synoptic pattern. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, with resolution hinging on exact cloud cover and any localized clearing that could enhance cooling before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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