Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a maximum temperature near 18–19°C in Warsaw on September 6, driven by persistent cloud cover, light westerly to northwesterly winds, and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 19°C (45.5%) and 18°C (27.0%), as cooler air advection and reduced insolation keep readings below early-September climatological averages of roughly 20–21°C. Lower odds for 20°C or higher reflect limited warming potential under the current synoptic pattern, while probabilities for 17°C or below account for possible heavier cloud or precipitation effects. Final observations and any last model adjustments before the daily maximum will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
19°C 47%
18°C 27%
20°C 18%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
27%
19°C
47%
20°C
18%
21°C
5%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 47%
18°C 27%
20°C 18%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
$19 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$398 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$84 Vol.
5%
18°C
$879 Vol.
27%
19°C
$340 Vol.
47%
20°C
$697 Vol.
18%
21°C
$176 Vol.
5%
22°C
$55 Vol.
2%
23°C
$157 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$732 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a maximum temperature near 18–19°C in Warsaw on September 6, driven by persistent cloud cover, light westerly to northwesterly winds, and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 19°C (45.5%) and 18°C (27.0%), as cooler air advection and reduced insolation keep readings below early-September climatological averages of roughly 20–21°C. Lower odds for 20°C or higher reflect limited warming potential under the current synoptic pattern, while probabilities for 17°C or below account for possible heavier cloud or precipitation effects. Final observations and any last model adjustments before the daily maximum will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,537End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a maximum temperature near 18–19°C in Warsaw on September 6, driven by persistent cloud cover, light westerly to northwesterly winds, and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 19°C (45.5%) and 18°C (27.0%), as cooler air advection and reduced insolation keep readings below early-September climatological averages of roughly 20–21°C. Lower odds for 20°C or higher reflect limited warming potential under the current synoptic pattern, while probabilities for 17°C or below account for possible heavier cloud or precipitation effects. Final observations and any last model adjustments before the daily maximum will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,537End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a maximum temperature near 18–19°C in Warsaw on September 6, driven by persistent cloud cover, light westerly to northwesterly winds, and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 19°C (45.5%) and 18°C (27.0%), as cooler air advection and reduced insolation keep readings below early-September climatological averages of roughly 20–21°C. Lower odds for 20°C or higher reflect limited warming potential under the current synoptic pattern, while probabilities for 17°C or below account for possible heavier cloud or precipitation effects. Final observations and any last model adjustments before the daily maximum will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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