**Westerly winds and scattered showers are anchoring Warsaw’s overnight low near 13–14°C on September 5, producing the tightest market clustering between those two outcomes.** Official guidance from models such as GFS and ECMWF shows mild maritime air advection, with surface winds of 15–30 km/h limiting radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Forecast minimums range from 13°C in Polish meteorological summaries to 14°C in European ensembles, with only modest spread from precipitation timing and cloud-cover variations. Historical September averages near 10–11°C provide context, but the current pattern lacks a strong cold-air intrusion. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and IMGW updates heavily, as any shift in overnight cloud cover or wind speed could nudge the recorded minimum across the narrow 13–14°C threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 5?
13°C 48%
14°C 47%
12°C or below 46%
16°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
46%
13°C
48%
14°C
47%
15°C
24%
16°C
42%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
13°C 48%
14°C 47%
12°C or below 46%
16°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
$4 Vol.
46%
13°C
$2 Vol.
48%
14°C
$2 Vol.
47%
15°C
$2 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
42%
17°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$24 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Westerly winds and scattered showers are anchoring Warsaw’s overnight low near 13–14°C on September 5, producing the tightest market clustering between those two outcomes.** Official guidance from models such as GFS and ECMWF shows mild maritime air advection, with surface winds of 15–30 km/h limiting radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Forecast minimums range from 13°C in Polish meteorological summaries to 14°C in European ensembles, with only modest spread from precipitation timing and cloud-cover variations. Historical September averages near 10–11°C provide context, but the current pattern lacks a strong cold-air intrusion. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and IMGW updates heavily, as any shift in overnight cloud cover or wind speed could nudge the recorded minimum across the narrow 13–14°C threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$168End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Westerly winds and scattered showers are anchoring Warsaw’s overnight low near 13–14°C on September 5, producing the tightest market clustering between those two outcomes.** Official guidance from models such as GFS and ECMWF shows mild maritime air advection, with surface winds of 15–30 km/h limiting radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Forecast minimums range from 13°C in Polish meteorological summaries to 14°C in European ensembles, with only modest spread from precipitation timing and cloud-cover variations. Historical September averages near 10–11°C provide context, but the current pattern lacks a strong cold-air intrusion. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and IMGW updates heavily, as any shift in overnight cloud cover or wind speed could nudge the recorded minimum across the narrow 13–14°C threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$168End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Westerly winds and scattered showers are anchoring Warsaw’s overnight low near 13–14°C on September 5, producing the tightest market clustering between those two outcomes.** Official guidance from models such as GFS and ECMWF shows mild maritime air advection, with surface winds of 15–30 km/h limiting radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Forecast minimums range from 13°C in Polish meteorological summaries to 14°C in European ensembles, with only modest spread from precipitation timing and cloud-cover variations. Historical September averages near 10–11°C provide context, but the current pattern lacks a strong cold-air intrusion. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and IMGW updates heavily, as any shift in overnight cloud cover or wind speed could nudge the recorded minimum across the narrow 13–14°C threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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