Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate an overnight low near 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a persistent warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This above-normal warmth, exceeding the historical August average of 24–25°C, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C as the daily minimum recorded at official stations. Traders weigh the consistency of current guidance against the possibility of stronger radiative cooling from clearer skies or an unexpected frontal passage, which could produce a 25°C or lower reading, though such shifts remain unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,295 Vol.
$16,295 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
98%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,295 Vol.
$16,295 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
$348 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$457 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$506 Vol.
1%
25°C
$845 Vol.
1%
26°C
$1,374 Vol.
98%
27°C
$10,057 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,181 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$659 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$305 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$193 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate an overnight low near 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a persistent warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This above-normal warmth, exceeding the historical August average of 24–25°C, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C as the daily minimum recorded at official stations. Traders weigh the consistency of current guidance against the possibility of stronger radiative cooling from clearer skies or an unexpected frontal passage, which could produce a 25°C or lower reading, though such shifts remain unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,295End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate an overnight low near 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a persistent warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This above-normal warmth, exceeding the historical August average of 24–25°C, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C as the daily minimum recorded at official stations. Traders weigh the consistency of current guidance against the possibility of stronger radiative cooling from clearer skies or an unexpected frontal passage, which could produce a 25°C or lower reading, though such shifts remain unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,295End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate an overnight low near 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a persistent warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This above-normal warmth, exceeding the historical August average of 24–25°C, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C as the daily minimum recorded at official stations. Traders weigh the consistency of current guidance against the possibility of stronger radiative cooling from clearer skies or an unexpected frontal passage, which could produce a 25°C or lower reading, though such shifts remain unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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