Recent forecast models from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tel Aviv on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 45% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow under clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the early-September climatological average of 20–22°C. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 23°C absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns, while upside deviations toward 26°C or warmer remain plausible if daytime heat lingers into the evening. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 8?
25°C 50%
26°C 49%
22°C 48%
23°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
41%
21°C
10%
22°C
48%
23°C
48%
24°C
32%
25°C
41%
26°C
49%
27°C
8%
28°C
8%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
40%
25°C 50%
26°C 49%
22°C 48%
23°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
41%
21°C
$0 Vol.
10%
22°C
$0 Vol.
48%
23°C
$0 Vol.
48%
24°C
$0 Vol.
32%
25°C
$6 Vol.
41%
26°C
$0 Vol.
49%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tel Aviv on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 45% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow under clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the early-September climatological average of 20–22°C. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 23°C absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns, while upside deviations toward 26°C or warmer remain plausible if daytime heat lingers into the evening. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$106End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tel Aviv on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 45% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow under clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the early-September climatological average of 20–22°C. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 23°C absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns, while upside deviations toward 26°C or warmer remain plausible if daytime heat lingers into the evening. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$106End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tel Aviv on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 45% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow under clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the early-September climatological average of 20–22°C. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 23°C absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns, while upside deviations toward 26°C or warmer remain plausible if daytime heat lingers into the evening. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions