**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) project a minimum temperature of 12–14°C for Mexico City on August 30, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 94% consensus on 12°C.** This positioning stems from current model guidance showing moderate cloud cover, light easterly winds, and typical late-August moisture patterns that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping overnight lows above the seasonal average low near 10–11°C. Historical data from the Tacubaya observatory and nearby stations support similar values under comparable conditions. Traders appear to weigh the official forecast heavily, given its role in defining the verifiable minimum for market resolution. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow than currently modeled, potentially dropping the reading to 11°C or below before dawn on the 31st; updated SMN briefings or station reports could still shift odds if observations deviate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
12°C 94%
11°C 44%
10°C 24%
8°C <1%
$950 Vol.
$950 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
24%
11°C
44%
12°C
94%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 94%
11°C 44%
10°C 24%
8°C <1%
$950 Vol.
$950 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
$38 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$37 Vol.
1%
9°C
$50 Vol.
1%
10°C
$4 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
44%
12°C
$178 Vol.
94%
13°C
$124 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$164 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$148 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) project a minimum temperature of 12–14°C for Mexico City on August 30, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 94% consensus on 12°C.** This positioning stems from current model guidance showing moderate cloud cover, light easterly winds, and typical late-August moisture patterns that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping overnight lows above the seasonal average low near 10–11°C. Historical data from the Tacubaya observatory and nearby stations support similar values under comparable conditions. Traders appear to weigh the official forecast heavily, given its role in defining the verifiable minimum for market resolution. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow than currently modeled, potentially dropping the reading to 11°C or below before dawn on the 31st; updated SMN briefings or station reports could still shift odds if observations deviate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$950End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) project a minimum temperature of 12–14°C for Mexico City on August 30, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 94% consensus on 12°C.** This positioning stems from current model guidance showing moderate cloud cover, light easterly winds, and typical late-August moisture patterns that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping overnight lows above the seasonal average low near 10–11°C. Historical data from the Tacubaya observatory and nearby stations support similar values under comparable conditions. Traders appear to weigh the official forecast heavily, given its role in defining the verifiable minimum for market resolution. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow than currently modeled, potentially dropping the reading to 11°C or below before dawn on the 31st; updated SMN briefings or station reports could still shift odds if observations deviate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$950End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) project a minimum temperature of 12–14°C for Mexico City on August 30, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 94% consensus on 12°C.** This positioning stems from current model guidance showing moderate cloud cover, light easterly winds, and typical late-August moisture patterns that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping overnight lows above the seasonal average low near 10–11°C. Historical data from the Tacubaya observatory and nearby stations support similar values under comparable conditions. Traders appear to weigh the official forecast heavily, given its role in defining the verifiable minimum for market resolution. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow than currently modeled, potentially dropping the reading to 11°C or below before dawn on the 31st; updated SMN briefings or station reports could still shift odds if observations deviate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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