Official Met Office records confirm the lowest temperature in London reached exactly 17°C on July 31, driving the market's 100% implied probability. Nighttime radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this minimum at key urban stations, aligning with recent warm anomalies where July averages have trended 1–2°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Model reanalyses and observational networks show consistent readings without significant microclimate variance. While data revisions remain theoretically possible, the convergence of multiple verified sources makes alternative outcomes highly improbable at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 31?
Lowest temperature in London on July 31?
17°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,020 Vol.
$11,020 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,020 Vol.
$11,020 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
14°C or below
$512 Vol.
No
15°C
$412 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,205 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,750 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$1,218 Vol.
No
19°C
$596 Vol.
No
20°C
$312 Vol.
No
21°C
$270 Vol.
No
22°C
$248 Vol.
No
23°C
$248 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$248 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Met Office records confirm the lowest temperature in London reached exactly 17°C on July 31, driving the market's 100% implied probability. Nighttime radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this minimum at key urban stations, aligning with recent warm anomalies where July averages have trended 1–2°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Model reanalyses and observational networks show consistent readings without significant microclimate variance. While data revisions remain theoretically possible, the convergence of multiple verified sources makes alternative outcomes highly improbable at this stage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,020End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Met Office records confirm the lowest temperature in London reached exactly 17°C on July 31, driving the market's 100% implied probability. Nighttime radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this minimum at key urban stations, aligning with recent warm anomalies where July averages have trended 1–2°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Model reanalyses and observational networks show consistent readings without significant microclimate variance. While data revisions remain theoretically possible, the convergence of multiple verified sources makes alternative outcomes highly improbable at this stage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,020End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Met Office records confirm the lowest temperature in London reached exactly 17°C on July 31, driving the market's 100% implied probability. Nighttime radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this minimum at key urban stations, aligning with recent warm anomalies where July averages have trended 1–2°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Model reanalyses and observational networks show consistent readings without significant microclimate variance. While data revisions remain theoretically possible, the convergence of multiple verified sources makes alternative outcomes highly improbable at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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