**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated across north Texas, with official forecasts from sources aligned with NOAA guidance pointing to a minimum near 80–82°F for Dallas on September 14.** Clear skies, dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, and sustained southerly winds of 5–15 mph limit radiational cooling, pushing temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 70.7°F for the date. Multiple model runs show tight agreement on this warm regime with minimal overnight drop, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered around 78–81°F (over 60% combined). A modest chance for slightly cooler readings exists if boundary-layer mixing weakens more than expected, while any strengthening southerly advection could hold the low above 82°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 14?
71°F or below 51%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 40%
74-75°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
71°F or below
51%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
38%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90°F or higher
35%
71°F or below 51%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 40%
74-75°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
51%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
17%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
38%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
38%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
30%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
17%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
17%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated across north Texas, with official forecasts from sources aligned with NOAA guidance pointing to a minimum near 80–82°F for Dallas on September 14.**
Clear skies, dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, and sustained southerly winds of 5–15 mph limit radiational cooling, pushing temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 70.7°F for the date. Multiple model runs show tight agreement on this warm regime with minimal overnight drop, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered around 78–81°F (over 60% combined). A modest chance for slightly cooler readings exists if boundary-layer mixing weakens more than expected, while any strengthening southerly advection could hold the low above 82°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated across north Texas, with official forecasts from sources aligned with NOAA guidance pointing to a minimum near 80–82°F for Dallas on September 14.**
Clear skies, dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, and sustained southerly winds of 5–15 mph limit radiational cooling, pushing temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 70.7°F for the date. Multiple model runs show tight agreement on this warm regime with minimal overnight drop, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered around 78–81°F (over 60% combined). A modest chance for slightly cooler readings exists if boundary-layer mixing weakens more than expected, while any strengthening southerly advection could hold the low above 82°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated across north Texas, with official forecasts from sources aligned with NOAA guidance pointing to a minimum near 80–82°F for Dallas on September 14.** Clear skies, dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, and sustained southerly winds of 5–15 mph limit radiational cooling, pushing temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 70.7°F for the date. Multiple model runs show tight agreement on this warm regime with minimal overnight drop, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered around 78–81°F (over 60% combined). A modest chance for slightly cooler readings exists if boundary-layer mixing weakens more than expected, while any strengthening southerly advection could hold the low above 82°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions