Trader consensus centers on an 11–13°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 6, reflecting model agreement for overnight radiative cooling under building high pressure near 1026 hPa and light southerly flow. Partly cloudy skies limit but do not eliminate surface heat loss, while dew points near 11–12°C and winds of 2–4 m/s moderate mixing in the boundary layer. These conditions align with the September climatological average low of 11.7°C yet allow modest deviations based on exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Ensemble spreads in short-range guidance create the tight distribution across 11–14°C, with lower probabilities for sub-10°C tied to stronger cooling or 15°C+ requiring sustained cloud cover or advection. Updated model runs tonight will refine the final minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 6?
14°C 49%
12°C 27%
11°C 26%
13°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
8%
9°C
15%
10°C
19%
11°C
26%
12°C
27%
13°C
25%
14°C
49%
15°C
16%
16°C
14%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 49%
12°C 27%
11°C 26%
13°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
8%
9°C
$0 Vol.
15%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
16%
16°C
$0 Vol.
14%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on an 11–13°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 6, reflecting model agreement for overnight radiative cooling under building high pressure near 1026 hPa and light southerly flow. Partly cloudy skies limit but do not eliminate surface heat loss, while dew points near 11–12°C and winds of 2–4 m/s moderate mixing in the boundary layer. These conditions align with the September climatological average low of 11.7°C yet allow modest deviations based on exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Ensemble spreads in short-range guidance create the tight distribution across 11–14°C, with lower probabilities for sub-10°C tied to stronger cooling or 15°C+ requiring sustained cloud cover or advection. Updated model runs tonight will refine the final minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on an 11–13°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 6, reflecting model agreement for overnight radiative cooling under building high pressure near 1026 hPa and light southerly flow. Partly cloudy skies limit but do not eliminate surface heat loss, while dew points near 11–12°C and winds of 2–4 m/s moderate mixing in the boundary layer. These conditions align with the September climatological average low of 11.7°C yet allow modest deviations based on exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Ensemble spreads in short-range guidance create the tight distribution across 11–14°C, with lower probabilities for sub-10°C tied to stronger cooling or 15°C+ requiring sustained cloud cover or advection. Updated model runs tonight will refine the final minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on an 11–13°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 6, reflecting model agreement for overnight radiative cooling under building high pressure near 1026 hPa and light southerly flow. Partly cloudy skies limit but do not eliminate surface heat loss, while dew points near 11–12°C and winds of 2–4 m/s moderate mixing in the boundary layer. These conditions align with the September climatological average low of 11.7°C yet allow modest deviations based on exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Ensemble spreads in short-range guidance create the tight distribution across 11–14°C, with lower probabilities for sub-10°C tied to stronger cooling or 15°C+ requiring sustained cloud cover or advection. Updated model runs tonight will refine the final minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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