Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office, GFS, and European models converge on a Warsaw high near 19–20 °C for August 18, driven by westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air masses, increased cloud cover, and possible early showers that suppress daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing. These conditions create a cool anomaly relative to typical August maxima near 23 °C, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 18–20 °C reflecting uncertainty in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence. Short-range model updates and real-time observations from Chopin Airport will resolve the final threshold by distinguishing modest warming potential under clearer skies from further suppression under sustained overcast or precipitation.