Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance indicates partly sunny conditions for San Francisco on August 18, with a persistent marine layer and onshore flow moderating coastal highs near 70°F at KSFO. This setup aligns with climatological August norms of 67–70°F, where the cold California Current and stratus clouds limit daytime heating and reduce variance. Trader consensus has concentrated implied probability on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins because ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential absent a strong offshore ridge or diminished sea breeze. Minor upward revisions in recent model runs have slightly elevated the 72–73°F share, while sub-68°F outcomes remain possible only if thicker fog lingers longer than expected. Resolution hinges on the official NWS daily maximum at the airport station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 18?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 18?
70-71°F 39%
72-73°F 29%
68-69°F 16%
74-75°F 10%
NEW
$11,575 Vol.
NEW
$11,575 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
67°F or below
6%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
29%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 39%
72-73°F 29%
68-69°F 16%
74-75°F 10%
NEW
$11,575 Vol.
NEW
$11,575 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
67°F or below
$1,497 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$821 Vol.
16%
70-71°F
$2,446 Vol.
39%
72-73°F
$929 Vol.
29%
74-75°F
$780 Vol.
10%
76-77°F
$1,990 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$1,298 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$666 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$536 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$502 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance indicates partly sunny conditions for San Francisco on August 18, with a persistent marine layer and onshore flow moderating coastal highs near 70°F at KSFO. This setup aligns with climatological August norms of 67–70°F, where the cold California Current and stratus clouds limit daytime heating and reduce variance. Trader consensus has concentrated implied probability on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins because ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential absent a strong offshore ridge or diminished sea breeze. Minor upward revisions in recent model runs have slightly elevated the 72–73°F share, while sub-68°F outcomes remain possible only if thicker fog lingers longer than expected. Resolution hinges on the official NWS daily maximum at the airport station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$11,575End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance indicates partly sunny conditions for San Francisco on August 18, with a persistent marine layer and onshore flow moderating coastal highs near 70°F at KSFO. This setup aligns with climatological August norms of 67–70°F, where the cold California Current and stratus clouds limit daytime heating and reduce variance. Trader consensus has concentrated implied probability on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins because ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential absent a strong offshore ridge or diminished sea breeze. Minor upward revisions in recent model runs have slightly elevated the 72–73°F share, while sub-68°F outcomes remain possible only if thicker fog lingers longer than expected. Resolution hinges on the official NWS daily maximum at the airport station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,575End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance indicates partly sunny conditions for San Francisco on August 18, with a persistent marine layer and onshore flow moderating coastal highs near 70°F at KSFO. This setup aligns with climatological August norms of 67–70°F, where the cold California Current and stratus clouds limit daytime heating and reduce variance. Trader consensus has concentrated implied probability on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins because ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential absent a strong offshore ridge or diminished sea breeze. Minor upward revisions in recent model runs have slightly elevated the 72–73°F share, while sub-68°F outcomes remain possible only if thicker fog lingers longer than expected. Resolution hinges on the official NWS daily maximum at the airport station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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