Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicate a maximum temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 14, consistent with the market’s leading 33% probability for that outcome and clustered support for 26–28°C. A broad area of high pressure promotes subsidence and limited cloud cover, allowing modest diurnal heating above the 21.7°C climatological average high while light northwest flow prevents strong warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread, with afternoon peaks typically reaching 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to variable skies and minimal precipitation risk. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily maximum by 1°C, explaining the tight distribution around the central outcomes as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 14?
27°C 36%
28°C 24%
26°C 20%
29°C 13%
NEW
$12,248 Vol.
NEW
$12,248 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
20%
27°C
36%
28°C
24%
29°C
13%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 36%
28°C 24%
26°C 20%
29°C 13%
NEW
$12,248 Vol.
NEW
$12,248 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
22°C or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$90 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,324 Vol.
10%
26°C
$2,559 Vol.
20%
27°C
$2,042 Vol.
36%
28°C
$3,430 Vol.
24%
29°C
$2,081 Vol.
13%
30°C
$80 Vol.
3%
31°C
$2 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicate a maximum temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 14, consistent with the market’s leading 33% probability for that outcome and clustered support for 26–28°C. A broad area of high pressure promotes subsidence and limited cloud cover, allowing modest diurnal heating above the 21.7°C climatological average high while light northwest flow prevents strong warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread, with afternoon peaks typically reaching 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to variable skies and minimal precipitation risk. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily maximum by 1°C, explaining the tight distribution around the central outcomes as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$12,248End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicate a maximum temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 14, consistent with the market’s leading 33% probability for that outcome and clustered support for 26–28°C. A broad area of high pressure promotes subsidence and limited cloud cover, allowing modest diurnal heating above the 21.7°C climatological average high while light northwest flow prevents strong warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread, with afternoon peaks typically reaching 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to variable skies and minimal precipitation risk. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily maximum by 1°C, explaining the tight distribution around the central outcomes as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,248End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicate a maximum temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 14, consistent with the market’s leading 33% probability for that outcome and clustered support for 26–28°C. A broad area of high pressure promotes subsidence and limited cloud cover, allowing modest diurnal heating above the 21.7°C climatological average high while light northwest flow prevents strong warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread, with afternoon peaks typically reaching 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to variable skies and minimal precipitation risk. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily maximum by 1°C, explaining the tight distribution around the central outcomes as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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