Recent model consensus for Mexico City on August 3 points to a daily maximum near 26–27 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation the city’s baseline is moderated by thinner atmosphere and radiative cooling overnight, while the ongoing North American monsoon supplies afternoon humidity, cloud cover, and scattered showers that frequently cap peak readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Minor forecast differences hinge on exact timing and coverage of convection, urban heat-island amplification, and whether any clearing allows a brief spike toward 28 °C. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance from agencies such as CONAGUA against climatological norms of 23–26 °C for early August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 3?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 3?
27°C 40%
26°C 35%
28°C 17%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
8%
26°C
35%
27°C
40%
28°C
17%
29°C
5%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 40%
26°C 35%
28°C 17%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
21°C or below
$105 Vol.
1%
22°C
$110 Vol.
1%
23°C
$200 Vol.
2%
24°C
$22 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$16 Vol.
35%
27°C
$83 Vol.
40%
28°C
$0 Vol.
17%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$9 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus for Mexico City on August 3 points to a daily maximum near 26–27 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation the city’s baseline is moderated by thinner atmosphere and radiative cooling overnight, while the ongoing North American monsoon supplies afternoon humidity, cloud cover, and scattered showers that frequently cap peak readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Minor forecast differences hinge on exact timing and coverage of convection, urban heat-island amplification, and whether any clearing allows a brief spike toward 28 °C. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance from agencies such as CONAGUA against climatological norms of 23–26 °C for early August.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$570End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus for Mexico City on August 3 points to a daily maximum near 26–27 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation the city’s baseline is moderated by thinner atmosphere and radiative cooling overnight, while the ongoing North American monsoon supplies afternoon humidity, cloud cover, and scattered showers that frequently cap peak readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Minor forecast differences hinge on exact timing and coverage of convection, urban heat-island amplification, and whether any clearing allows a brief spike toward 28 °C. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance from agencies such as CONAGUA against climatological norms of 23–26 °C for early August.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$570End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus for Mexico City on August 3 points to a daily maximum near 26–27 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation the city’s baseline is moderated by thinner atmosphere and radiative cooling overnight, while the ongoing North American monsoon supplies afternoon humidity, cloud cover, and scattered showers that frequently cap peak readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Minor forecast differences hinge on exact timing and coverage of convection, urban heat-island amplification, and whether any clearing allows a brief spike toward 28 °C. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance from agencies such as CONAGUA against climatological norms of 23–26 °C for early August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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