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icon for Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Politics·Manchester

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes

icon for Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Politics·Manchester

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes

Bev Craig 95.7%

Sian Astley 2.6%

Dan Barker 1.0%

Geraldine Coggins <1%

Polymarket

$59,468 Vol.

Bev Craig 95.7%

Sian Astley 2.6%

Dan Barker 1.0%

Geraldine Coggins <1%

Polymarket

$59,468 Vol.

icon for Bev Craig

Bev Craig

$22,442 Vol.

96%

icon for Sian Astley

Sian Astley

$5,538 Vol.

3%

icon for Dan Barker

Dan Barker

$18,104 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldine Coggins

Geraldine Coggins

$2,802 Vol.

1%

icon for Hannah Spencer

Hannah Spencer

$2,214 Vol.

1%

icon for Arooj Shah

Arooj Shah

$1,667 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nick Buckley

Nick Buckley

$1,108 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jake Austin

Jake Austin

$1,099 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kate Green

Kate Green

$1,485 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paul Dennett

Paul Dennett

$1,058 Vol.

<1%

icon for Laura Evans

Laura Evans

$922 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marlon Scott West

Marlon Scott West

$1,030 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election. If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.

If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$59,468
End Date
Jul 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election. If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election. If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.

If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$59,468
End Date
Jul 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election. If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bev Craig" at 96%, followed by "Sian Astley" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes" has generated $59.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes" is "Bev Craig" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sian Astley" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.