Elevated inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and total PCE around 3.7% as of mid-2026 amid energy price pressures from Middle East tensions, tariffs, and AI-driven demand, forms the primary driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike sometime in 2026. The July FOMC meeting highlighted this hawkish tilt, with a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, as minutes noted that many participants viewed tightening as necessary if prices fail to moderate toward the 2% target. Softening labor data, including July's negative nonfarm payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, has introduced some uncertainty but has not fully offset inflation concerns in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and Jackson Hole symposium commentary, all of which could shift the balance between hold and hike scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated56% chance
$7,941,613 Vol.
$7,941,613 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
56% chance
$7,941,613 Vol.
$7,941,613 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and total PCE around 3.7% as of mid-2026 amid energy price pressures from Middle East tensions, tariffs, and AI-driven demand, forms the primary driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike sometime in 2026. The July FOMC meeting highlighted this hawkish tilt, with a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, as minutes noted that many participants viewed tightening as necessary if prices fail to moderate toward the 2% target. Softening labor data, including July's negative nonfarm payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, has introduced some uncertainty but has not fully offset inflation concerns in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and Jackson Hole symposium commentary, all of which could shift the balance between hold and hike scenarios.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,941,613End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and total PCE around 3.7% as of mid-2026 amid energy price pressures from Middle East tensions, tariffs, and AI-driven demand, forms the primary driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike sometime in 2026. The July FOMC meeting highlighted this hawkish tilt, with a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, as minutes noted that many participants viewed tightening as necessary if prices fail to moderate toward the 2% target. Softening labor data, including July's negative nonfarm payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, has introduced some uncertainty but has not fully offset inflation concerns in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and Jackson Hole symposium commentary, all of which could shift the balance between hold and hike scenarios.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,941,613End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and total PCE around 3.7% as of mid-2026 amid energy price pressures from Middle East tensions, tariffs, and AI-driven demand, forms the primary driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike sometime in 2026. The July FOMC meeting highlighted this hawkish tilt, with a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, as minutes noted that many participants viewed tightening as necessary if prices fail to moderate toward the 2% target. Softening labor data, including July's negative nonfarm payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, has introduced some uncertainty but has not fully offset inflation concerns in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and Jackson Hole symposium commentary, all of which could shift the balance between hold and hike scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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