Recent July FOMC minutes and the June dot plot reveal a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core measures around 3.3-3.6%, driven by tariffs, Middle East energy shocks, and AI-related demand. This has elevated market-implied odds of a December tightening while supporting the 60.5% consensus for no change, as incoming data show moderating job growth, a stable 4.1-4.3% unemployment rate, and some cooling in recent CPI prints. Traders price the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range as appropriate given resilient GDP and balanced labor conditions, though September and December meetings plus fresh inflation releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path toward the Fed's 2% goal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
$278,078 Vol.
$278,078 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
$278,078 Vol.
$278,078 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$52,092 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$60,771 Vol.
9%
No change
$49,931 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$57,478 Vol.
29%
50+ bps increase
$57,806 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July FOMC minutes and the June dot plot reveal a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core measures around 3.3-3.6%, driven by tariffs, Middle East energy shocks, and AI-related demand. This has elevated market-implied odds of a December tightening while supporting the 60.5% consensus for no change, as incoming data show moderating job growth, a stable 4.1-4.3% unemployment rate, and some cooling in recent CPI prints. Traders price the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range as appropriate given resilient GDP and balanced labor conditions, though September and December meetings plus fresh inflation releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path toward the Fed's 2% goal.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$278,078End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July FOMC minutes and the June dot plot reveal a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core measures around 3.3-3.6%, driven by tariffs, Middle East energy shocks, and AI-related demand. This has elevated market-implied odds of a December tightening while supporting the 60.5% consensus for no change, as incoming data show moderating job growth, a stable 4.1-4.3% unemployment rate, and some cooling in recent CPI prints. Traders price the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range as appropriate given resilient GDP and balanced labor conditions, though September and December meetings plus fresh inflation releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path toward the Fed's 2% goal.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$278,078End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July FOMC minutes and the June dot plot reveal a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core measures around 3.3-3.6%, driven by tariffs, Middle East energy shocks, and AI-related demand. This has elevated market-implied odds of a December tightening while supporting the 60.5% consensus for no change, as incoming data show moderating job growth, a stable 4.1-4.3% unemployment rate, and some cooling in recent CPI prints. Traders price the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range as appropriate given resilient GDP and balanced labor conditions, though September and December meetings plus fresh inflation releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path toward the Fed's 2% goal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions