Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside broad-based price pressures from energy and shelter, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC. Recent July meeting minutes, released August 19, revealed heightened inflation concerns, with "many" participants viewing a rate hike as likely necessary if progress stalls and three members dissenting in favor of immediate tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Stable labor conditions and supply-driven inflation have shifted consensus toward a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh, supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. September CPI and FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
$278,078 Vol.
$278,078 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
$278,078 Vol.
$278,078 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$52,092 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$60,771 Vol.
9%
No change
$49,931 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$57,478 Vol.
29%
50+ bps increase
$57,806 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside broad-based price pressures from energy and shelter, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC. Recent July meeting minutes, released August 19, revealed heightened inflation concerns, with "many" participants viewing a rate hike as likely necessary if progress stalls and three members dissenting in favor of immediate tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Stable labor conditions and supply-driven inflation have shifted consensus toward a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh, supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. September CPI and FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$278,078End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside broad-based price pressures from energy and shelter, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC. Recent July meeting minutes, released August 19, revealed heightened inflation concerns, with "many" participants viewing a rate hike as likely necessary if progress stalls and three members dissenting in favor of immediate tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Stable labor conditions and supply-driven inflation have shifted consensus toward a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh, supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. September CPI and FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$278,078End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside broad-based price pressures from energy and shelter, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC. Recent July meeting minutes, released August 19, revealed heightened inflation concerns, with "many" participants viewing a rate hike as likely necessary if progress stalls and three members dissenting in favor of immediate tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Stable labor conditions and supply-driven inflation have shifted consensus toward a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh, supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. September CPI and FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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