Recent benchmark updates show Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trading the top spots on leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, creating tight implied probabilities across multiple labs for the end-of-November #1 position. Trader consensus reflects ongoing rapid iteration, with Chinese providers like Z.ai, ByteDance, DeepSeek, and Alibaba releasing competitive open-weight or lower-cost models that narrow capability gaps on agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks. Key swing factors include Anthropic and OpenAI’s planned September–October updates, potential Google Gemini releases, and any surprise efficiency gains from Moonshot or Mistral. The market’s broad distribution underscores how quickly new model versions and benchmark rebaselining can shift relative standings before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMicrosoft 25%
Z.ai 25%
Amazon 24%
ByteDance 24%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
Microsoft
25%
Z.ai
25%
Amazon
24%
ByteDance
24%
Anthropic
20%
Nvidia
17%
Tencent
17%
Xiaomi
16%
MiniMax
15%
Alibaba
15%
SpaceXAI
15%
DeepSeek
15%
Meituan
14%
OpenAI
14%
Mistral
14%
Meta
13%
13%
Thinky
12%
StepFun
9%
Moonshot
7%
Baidu
13%
Microsoft 25%
Z.ai 25%
Amazon 24%
ByteDance 24%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
Microsoft
$49 Vol.
25%
Z.ai
$20 Vol.
25%
Amazon
$20 Vol.
24%
ByteDance
$20 Vol.
24%
Anthropic
$20 Vol.
20%
Nvidia
$20 Vol.
17%
Tencent
$20 Vol.
17%
Xiaomi
$20 Vol.
16%
MiniMax
$20 Vol.
15%
Alibaba
$20 Vol.
15%
SpaceXAI
$20 Vol.
15%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
15%
Meituan
$20 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$20 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$20 Vol.
14%
Meta
$20 Vol.
13%
$20 Vol.
13%
Thinky
$20 Vol.
12%
StepFun
$20 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$20 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$20 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark updates show Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trading the top spots on leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, creating tight implied probabilities across multiple labs for the end-of-November #1 position. Trader consensus reflects ongoing rapid iteration, with Chinese providers like Z.ai, ByteDance, DeepSeek, and Alibaba releasing competitive open-weight or lower-cost models that narrow capability gaps on agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks. Key swing factors include Anthropic and OpenAI’s planned September–October updates, potential Google Gemini releases, and any surprise efficiency gains from Moonshot or Mistral. The market’s broad distribution underscores how quickly new model versions and benchmark rebaselining can shift relative standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volumen
$449Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark updates show Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trading the top spots on leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, creating tight implied probabilities across multiple labs for the end-of-November #1 position. Trader consensus reflects ongoing rapid iteration, with Chinese providers like Z.ai, ByteDance, DeepSeek, and Alibaba releasing competitive open-weight or lower-cost models that narrow capability gaps on agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks. Key swing factors include Anthropic and OpenAI’s planned September–October updates, potential Google Gemini releases, and any surprise efficiency gains from Moonshot or Mistral. The market’s broad distribution underscores how quickly new model versions and benchmark rebaselining can shift relative standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$449Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark updates show Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trading the top spots on leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, creating tight implied probabilities across multiple labs for the end-of-November #1 position. Trader consensus reflects ongoing rapid iteration, with Chinese providers like Z.ai, ByteDance, DeepSeek, and Alibaba releasing competitive open-weight or lower-cost models that narrow capability gaps on agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks. Key swing factors include Anthropic and OpenAI’s planned September–October updates, potential Google Gemini releases, and any surprise efficiency gains from Moonshot or Mistral. The market’s broad distribution underscores how quickly new model versions and benchmark rebaselining can shift relative standings before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes