Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its 79% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end-September, as the model leads multiple independent benchmarks including BenchAlign at 82.95 and strong showings on Terminal-Bench and coding agent tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, sits close behind at roughly 81 on composite indices and accounts for the 18% odds, reflecting its competitive but secondary positioning in agentic and reasoning evaluations. Other labs trail further on current leaderboards. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s sustained edge in verifiable capability metrics against the possibility of rapid follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before month-end, consistent with historical patterns where frontier releases quickly re-rank the field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 79%
OpenAI 18.3%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,485 Vol.
$90,485 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Anthropic
79%
OpenAI
18%
Meta
2%
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 79%
OpenAI 18.3%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,485 Vol.
$90,485 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Anthropic
$39,899 Vol.
79%
OpenAI
$9,804 Vol.
18%
Meta
$7,951 Vol.
2%
$5,768 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$3,857 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,222 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,880 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its 79% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end-September, as the model leads multiple independent benchmarks including BenchAlign at 82.95 and strong showings on Terminal-Bench and coding agent tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, sits close behind at roughly 81 on composite indices and accounts for the 18% odds, reflecting its competitive but secondary positioning in agentic and reasoning evaluations. Other labs trail further on current leaderboards. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s sustained edge in verifiable capability metrics against the possibility of rapid follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before month-end, consistent with historical patterns where frontier releases quickly re-rank the field.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volumen
$90,485Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its 79% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end-September, as the model leads multiple independent benchmarks including BenchAlign at 82.95 and strong showings on Terminal-Bench and coding agent tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, sits close behind at roughly 81 on composite indices and accounts for the 18% odds, reflecting its competitive but secondary positioning in agentic and reasoning evaluations. Other labs trail further on current leaderboards. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s sustained edge in verifiable capability metrics against the possibility of rapid follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before month-end, consistent with historical patterns where frontier releases quickly re-rank the field.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$90,485Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its 79% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end-September, as the model leads multiple independent benchmarks including BenchAlign at 82.95 and strong showings on Terminal-Bench and coding agent tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, sits close behind at roughly 81 on composite indices and accounts for the 18% odds, reflecting its competitive but secondary positioning in agentic and reasoning evaluations. Other labs trail further on current leaderboards. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s sustained edge in verifiable capability metrics against the possibility of rapid follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before month-end, consistent with historical patterns where frontier releases quickly re-rank the field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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