Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 around September 1 has driven its 79.5% market-implied odds, as the model quickly secured the top position on supported leaderboards like BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong performance on coding and reasoning benchmarks, combined with Anthropic’s enterprise momentum and repeated frontier releases, reinforces trader consensus that its models will retain the lead through month-end. OpenAI’s 17% odds reflect competitive but slightly trailing results from Astra and the GPT-5.6 family, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their current benchmark gaps. With only weeks remaining, any late-September capability update could still shift outcomes, though current verified evidence favors Anthropic’s positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 80%
OpenAI 17.2%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,348 Vol.
$90,348 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Anthropic
80%
OpenAI
17%
Meta
2%
2%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 80%
OpenAI 17.2%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,348 Vol.
$90,348 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Anthropic
$39,822 Vol.
80%
OpenAI
$9,794 Vol.
17%
Meta
$7,941 Vol.
2%
$5,758 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$3,847 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,212 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,870 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 around September 1 has driven its 79.5% market-implied odds, as the model quickly secured the top position on supported leaderboards like BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong performance on coding and reasoning benchmarks, combined with Anthropic’s enterprise momentum and repeated frontier releases, reinforces trader consensus that its models will retain the lead through month-end. OpenAI’s 17% odds reflect competitive but slightly trailing results from Astra and the GPT-5.6 family, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their current benchmark gaps. With only weeks remaining, any late-September capability update could still shift outcomes, though current verified evidence favors Anthropic’s positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volumen
$90,348Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 around September 1 has driven its 79.5% market-implied odds, as the model quickly secured the top position on supported leaderboards like BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong performance on coding and reasoning benchmarks, combined with Anthropic’s enterprise momentum and repeated frontier releases, reinforces trader consensus that its models will retain the lead through month-end. OpenAI’s 17% odds reflect competitive but slightly trailing results from Astra and the GPT-5.6 family, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their current benchmark gaps. With only weeks remaining, any late-September capability update could still shift outcomes, though current verified evidence favors Anthropic’s positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$90,348Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 around September 1 has driven its 79.5% market-implied odds, as the model quickly secured the top position on supported leaderboards like BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong performance on coding and reasoning benchmarks, combined with Anthropic’s enterprise momentum and repeated frontier releases, reinforces trader consensus that its models will retain the lead through month-end. OpenAI’s 17% odds reflect competitive but slightly trailing results from Astra and the GPT-5.6 family, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their current benchmark gaps. With only weeks remaining, any late-September capability update could still shift outcomes, though current verified evidence favors Anthropic’s positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes