Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and related variants have driven its 70.5% market-implied odds by dominating August 2026 leaderboards in intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and reasoning benchmarks, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.5/5.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head evaluations. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on agentic workflows and safety-aligned capabilities, with limited near-term catch-up expected from competitors before October resolution. OpenAI at 35.5% and others like DeepSeek or Mistral trail due to narrower leads on complex benchmarks, while lower-priced options face questions on frontier scalability. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August or September model updates, developer conference demos, or new third-party evaluations that could shift consensus on relative capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 68%
Baidu 20%
DeepSeek 20%
MiniMax 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
68%
Baidu
20%
DeepSeek
20%
MiniMax
19%
StepFun
19%
Alibaba
18%
Nvidia
18%
17%
Microsoft
17%
Thinky
15%
Mistral
15%
Amazon
14%
Meituan
14%
OpenAI
12%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
5%
Meta
11%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 68%
Baidu 20%
DeepSeek 20%
MiniMax 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$57 Vol.
68%
Baidu
$107 Vol.
20%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
20%
MiniMax
$87 Vol.
19%
StepFun
$87 Vol.
19%
Alibaba
$44 Vol.
18%
Nvidia
$44 Vol.
18%
$44 Vol.
17%
Microsoft
$49 Vol.
17%
Thinky
$44 Vol.
15%
Mistral
$44 Vol.
15%
Amazon
$44 Vol.
14%
Meituan
$44 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$49 Vol.
12%
Moonshot
$107 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
$87 Vol.
5%
Meta
$87 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$87 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$87 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$87 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$87 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and related variants have driven its 70.5% market-implied odds by dominating August 2026 leaderboards in intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and reasoning benchmarks, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.5/5.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head evaluations. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on agentic workflows and safety-aligned capabilities, with limited near-term catch-up expected from competitors before October resolution. OpenAI at 35.5% and others like DeepSeek or Mistral trail due to narrower leads on complex benchmarks, while lower-priced options face questions on frontier scalability. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August or September model updates, developer conference demos, or new third-party evaluations that could shift consensus on relative capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,420Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and related variants have driven its 70.5% market-implied odds by dominating August 2026 leaderboards in intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and reasoning benchmarks, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.5/5.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head evaluations. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on agentic workflows and safety-aligned capabilities, with limited near-term catch-up expected from competitors before October resolution. OpenAI at 35.5% and others like DeepSeek or Mistral trail due to narrower leads on complex benchmarks, while lower-priced options face questions on frontier scalability. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August or September model updates, developer conference demos, or new third-party evaluations that could shift consensus on relative capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,420Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and related variants have driven its 70.5% market-implied odds by dominating August 2026 leaderboards in intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and reasoning benchmarks, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.5/5.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head evaluations. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on agentic workflows and safety-aligned capabilities, with limited near-term catch-up expected from competitors before October resolution. OpenAI at 35.5% and others like DeepSeek or Mistral trail due to narrower leads on complex benchmarks, while lower-priced options face questions on frontier scalability. Key upcoming catalysts include any mid-August or September model updates, developer conference demos, or new third-party evaluations that could shift consensus on relative capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes