Chinese AI labs have intensified competition in agentic capabilities following Moonshot AI’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model that matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 variants on long-horizon coding, reasoning, and multimodal agent benchmarks while costing far less. Alibaba’s Qwen updates and contributions from ByteDance, DeepSeek, and MiniMax have further compressed performance gaps, driving market-implied odds for Anthropic down to 37% amid rising probabilities for Alibaba, Moonshot, and peers. Traders see these verified benchmark gains and rapid iteration as key swing factors ahead of October resolution, tempered by uncertainty over sustained Western leads in enterprise agent frameworks and safety features.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 39%
Alibaba 23%
Moonshot 21%
ByteDance 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
39%
Alibaba
23%
Moonshot
21%
ByteDance
19%
Xiaomi
13%
OpenAI
13%
Amazon
13%
SpaceXAI
10%
Meta
6%
Mistral
5%
Baidu
5%
Microsoft
5%
MiniMax
4%
Z.ai
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
3%
9%
Anthropic 39%
Alibaba 23%
Moonshot 21%
ByteDance 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$76 Vol.
39%
Alibaba
$37 Vol.
23%
Moonshot
$37 Vol.
21%
ByteDance
$42 Vol.
19%
Xiaomi
$47 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$45 Vol.
13%
Amazon
$42 Vol.
13%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
10%
Meta
$42 Vol.
6%
Mistral
$53 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$53 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$48 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$37 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$37 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$53 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
3%
$37 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Chinese AI labs have intensified competition in agentic capabilities following Moonshot AI’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model that matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 variants on long-horizon coding, reasoning, and multimodal agent benchmarks while costing far less. Alibaba’s Qwen updates and contributions from ByteDance, DeepSeek, and MiniMax have further compressed performance gaps, driving market-implied odds for Anthropic down to 37% amid rising probabilities for Alibaba, Moonshot, and peers. Traders see these verified benchmark gains and rapid iteration as key swing factors ahead of October resolution, tempered by uncertainty over sustained Western leads in enterprise agent frameworks and safety features.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$845Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Chinese AI labs have intensified competition in agentic capabilities following Moonshot AI’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model that matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 variants on long-horizon coding, reasoning, and multimodal agent benchmarks while costing far less. Alibaba’s Qwen updates and contributions from ByteDance, DeepSeek, and MiniMax have further compressed performance gaps, driving market-implied odds for Anthropic down to 37% amid rising probabilities for Alibaba, Moonshot, and peers. Traders see these verified benchmark gains and rapid iteration as key swing factors ahead of October resolution, tempered by uncertainty over sustained Western leads in enterprise agent frameworks and safety features.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$845Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Chinese AI labs have intensified competition in agentic capabilities following Moonshot AI’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model that matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 variants on long-horizon coding, reasoning, and multimodal agent benchmarks while costing far less. Alibaba’s Qwen updates and contributions from ByteDance, DeepSeek, and MiniMax have further compressed performance gaps, driving market-implied odds for Anthropic down to 37% amid rising probabilities for Alibaba, Moonshot, and peers. Traders see these verified benchmark gains and rapid iteration as key swing factors ahead of October resolution, tempered by uncertainty over sustained Western leads in enterprise agent frameworks and safety features.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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