Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, first promised for June after its May I/O 2026 debut and then targeted for July, form the core driver behind current market odds clustered tightly around mid-to-late August dates. Internal performance shortfalls prompted a full rebuild rather than an early ship, while the July 21 release of Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite models without the Pro variant reinforced trader expectations of further slippage. The low 12% probability assigned to no August release at all reflects broad consensus that competitive pressure from rival large language models will push Google to deliver agentic capabilities soon, though exact timing hinges on unresolved testing and benchmark validation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAugust 10 32.2%
August 27 32%
August 25 29%
August 23 28%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
On or prior to August 1
1%
August 2
1%
August 3
-
August 4
28%
August 5
30%
August 6
6%
August 7
28%
August 8
5%
August 9
6%
August 10
32%
August 11
32%
August 12
-
August 13
27%
August 14
22%
August 15
1%
August 16
10%
August 17
27%
August 18
28%
August 19
28%
August 20
28%
August 21
-
August 22
-
August 23
28%
August 24
-
August 25
29%
August 26
-
August 27
32%
August 28
30%
August 29
24%
August 30
25%
August 31
-
No release by August 31
12%
August 10 32.2%
August 27 32%
August 25 29%
August 23 28%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
On or prior to August 1
$44 Vol.
1%
August 2
$274 Vol.
1%
August 3
$141 Vol.
-
August 4
$177 Vol.
28%
August 5
$382 Vol.
30%
August 6
$217 Vol.
6%
August 7
$377 Vol.
28%
August 8
$177 Vol.
5%
August 9
$196 Vol.
6%
August 10
$246 Vol.
32%
August 11
$177 Vol.
32%
August 12
$176 Vol.
-
August 13
$177 Vol.
27%
August 14
$177 Vol.
22%
August 15
$177 Vol.
1%
August 16
$177 Vol.
10%
August 17
$177 Vol.
27%
August 18
$177 Vol.
28%
August 19
$177 Vol.
28%
August 20
$177 Vol.
28%
August 21
$172 Vol.
-
August 22
$172 Vol.
-
August 23
$177 Vol.
28%
August 24
$177 Vol.
-
August 25
$177 Vol.
29%
August 26
$145 Vol.
-
August 27
$211 Vol.
32%
August 28
$177 Vol.
30%
August 29
$177 Vol.
24%
August 30
$177 Vol.
25%
August 31
$177 Vol.
-
No release by August 31
$794 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, first promised for June after its May I/O 2026 debut and then targeted for July, form the core driver behind current market odds clustered tightly around mid-to-late August dates. Internal performance shortfalls prompted a full rebuild rather than an early ship, while the July 21 release of Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite models without the Pro variant reinforced trader expectations of further slippage. The low 12% probability assigned to no August release at all reflects broad consensus that competitive pressure from rival large language models will push Google to deliver agentic capabilities soon, though exact timing hinges on unresolved testing and benchmark validation.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volumen
$6,731Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, first promised for June after its May I/O 2026 debut and then targeted for July, form the core driver behind current market odds clustered tightly around mid-to-late August dates. Internal performance shortfalls prompted a full rebuild rather than an early ship, while the July 21 release of Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite models without the Pro variant reinforced trader expectations of further slippage. The low 12% probability assigned to no August release at all reflects broad consensus that competitive pressure from rival large language models will push Google to deliver agentic capabilities soon, though exact timing hinges on unresolved testing and benchmark validation.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,731Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, first promised for June after its May I/O 2026 debut and then targeted for July, form the core driver behind current market odds clustered tightly around mid-to-late August dates. Internal performance shortfalls prompted a full rebuild rather than an early ship, while the July 21 release of Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite models without the Pro variant reinforced trader expectations of further slippage. The low 12% probability assigned to no August release at all reflects broad consensus that competitive pressure from rival large language models will push Google to deliver agentic capabilities soon, though exact timing hinges on unresolved testing and benchmark validation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes