Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader sentiment, with its Max effort variant commanding 85.5% implied probability due to demonstrated gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling that approach Claude Fable 5 capabilities at roughly half the cost. The model launched with a 1-million-token context window, thinking enabled by default across effort levels, and immediate availability on the Claude Max plan plus major platforms, shifting consensus away from prior Opus 4.6 iterations. With resolution just 16 days away, limited scope remains for competing releases from other labs to alter the leaderboard before August 17, though any surprise benchmark updates could introduce modest volatility around the high-effort and Fable variants.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-5-max 86%
claude-opus-5-high 30%
Otro 23%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
86%
claude-opus-5-high
30%
Otro
23%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
8%
claude-fable-5
5%
claude-opus-4-6
4%
claude-opus-5-max 86%
claude-opus-5-high 30%
Otro 23%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$0 Vol.
86%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
30%
Otro
$0 Vol.
23%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$69 Vol.
8%
claude-fable-5
$48 Vol.
5%
claude-opus-4-6
$67 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader sentiment, with its Max effort variant commanding 85.5% implied probability due to demonstrated gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling that approach Claude Fable 5 capabilities at roughly half the cost. The model launched with a 1-million-token context window, thinking enabled by default across effort levels, and immediate availability on the Claude Max plan plus major platforms, shifting consensus away from prior Opus 4.6 iterations. With resolution just 16 days away, limited scope remains for competing releases from other labs to alter the leaderboard before August 17, though any surprise benchmark updates could introduce modest volatility around the high-effort and Fable variants.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$184Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader sentiment, with its Max effort variant commanding 85.5% implied probability due to demonstrated gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling that approach Claude Fable 5 capabilities at roughly half the cost. The model launched with a 1-million-token context window, thinking enabled by default across effort levels, and immediate availability on the Claude Max plan plus major platforms, shifting consensus away from prior Opus 4.6 iterations. With resolution just 16 days away, limited scope remains for competing releases from other labs to alter the leaderboard before August 17, though any surprise benchmark updates could introduce modest volatility around the high-effort and Fable variants.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$184Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader sentiment, with its Max effort variant commanding 85.5% implied probability due to demonstrated gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling that approach Claude Fable 5 capabilities at roughly half the cost. The model launched with a 1-million-token context window, thinking enabled by default across effort levels, and immediate availability on the Claude Max plan plus major platforms, shifting consensus away from prior Opus 4.6 iterations. With resolution just 16 days away, limited scope remains for competing releases from other labs to alter the leaderboard before August 17, though any surprise benchmark updates could introduce modest volatility around the high-effort and Fable variants.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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