Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 89%
Google 7.6%
Moonshot 2.5%
Amazon 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
89%
8%
Moonshot
3%
Amazon
2%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
1%
Tencent
1%
Xiaomi
1%
StepFun
1%
MiniMax
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Bytedance
1%
Meituan
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 7.6%
Moonshot 2.5%
Amazon 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
$1,315 Vol.
89%
$454 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$405 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$451 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$421 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$420 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$496 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$426 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$399 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$383 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$312 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$348 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$693 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$471 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$319 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$379 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$288 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$440 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$188 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$188 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$239 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volumen
$9,035Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$9,035Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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