Anthropic leads with a 67% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and subsequent releases like Sonnet 5 and Fable 5 consistently topping 2026 benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and overall intelligence indices such as Artificial Analysis. Recent model iterations have demonstrated superior performance in agentic workflows and careful analysis compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 series captures 11.3% by excelling in real-time data integration and cost efficiency, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holds 9% through broad ecosystem strength despite trailing in select coding and reasoning tasks. Google, Meta, and others lag amid less consistent frontier gains. With end-2026 resolution approaching, further releases or benchmark shifts from these labs could influence trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 67%
xAI 11.3%
OpenAI 9%
Google 8%
$712,398 Vol.
$712,398 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Anthropic
67%
xAI
11%
OpenAI
9%
8%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67%
xAI 11.3%
OpenAI 9%
Google 8%
$712,398 Vol.
$712,398 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Anthropic
$79,205 Vol.
67%
xAI
$56,657 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$58,393 Vol.
9%
$38,725 Vol.
8%
Meta
$48,299 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$52,420 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$50,434 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$44,616 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$46,081 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$55,570 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$36,846 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$40,377 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$35,992 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$31,676 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$37,108 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads with a 67% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and subsequent releases like Sonnet 5 and Fable 5 consistently topping 2026 benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and overall intelligence indices such as Artificial Analysis. Recent model iterations have demonstrated superior performance in agentic workflows and careful analysis compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 series captures 11.3% by excelling in real-time data integration and cost efficiency, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holds 9% through broad ecosystem strength despite trailing in select coding and reasoning tasks. Google, Meta, and others lag amid less consistent frontier gains. With end-2026 resolution approaching, further releases or benchmark shifts from these labs could influence trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volumen
$712,398Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads with a 67% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and subsequent releases like Sonnet 5 and Fable 5 consistently topping 2026 benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and overall intelligence indices such as Artificial Analysis. Recent model iterations have demonstrated superior performance in agentic workflows and careful analysis compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 series captures 11.3% by excelling in real-time data integration and cost efficiency, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holds 9% through broad ecosystem strength despite trailing in select coding and reasoning tasks. Google, Meta, and others lag amid less consistent frontier gains. With end-2026 resolution approaching, further releases or benchmark shifts from these labs could influence trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$712,398Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads with a 67% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and subsequent releases like Sonnet 5 and Fable 5 consistently topping 2026 benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and overall intelligence indices such as Artificial Analysis. Recent model iterations have demonstrated superior performance in agentic workflows and careful analysis compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 series captures 11.3% by excelling in real-time data integration and cost efficiency, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holds 9% through broad ecosystem strength despite trailing in select coding and reasoning tasks. Google, Meta, and others lag amid less consistent frontier gains. With end-2026 resolution approaching, further releases or benchmark shifts from these labs could influence trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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