Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5 and related Claude 5 family releases in July 2026 have propelled its 58.5% market-implied probability by topping independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding, and agentic tool-use benchmarks. These models deliver superior long-context reasoning and professional task performance compared with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, Google's Gemini 3.5/3.6 Flash updates, and Meta's Llama iterations, reflecting focused iteration amid rapid frontier competition. With many other labs priced near 50% or lower due to less decisive recent results, trader consensus highlights Anthropic's current edge while noting that October resolution depends on further releases, benchmark stability, and potential surprises from Google, OpenAI, or xAI before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 55%
Meituan 18.5%
DeepSeek 16%
Google 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
55%
Meituan
19%
DeepSeek
16%
16%
Meta
15%
OpenAI
14%
Moonshot
12%
Alibaba
11%
Z.ai
9%
SpaceXAI
8%
MiniMax
6%
StepFun
5%
ByteDance
4%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Nvidia
10%
Tencent
12%
Microsoft
22%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
1%
Xiaomi
16%
Anthropic 55%
Meituan 18.5%
DeepSeek 16%
Google 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$44 Vol.
55%
Meituan
$110 Vol.
19%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
16%
$39 Vol.
16%
Meta
$39 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
11%
Z.ai
$39 Vol.
9%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
8%
MiniMax
$79 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
5%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$106 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$112 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$106 Vol.
10%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
22%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$110 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$112 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5 and related Claude 5 family releases in July 2026 have propelled its 58.5% market-implied probability by topping independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding, and agentic tool-use benchmarks. These models deliver superior long-context reasoning and professional task performance compared with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, Google's Gemini 3.5/3.6 Flash updates, and Meta's Llama iterations, reflecting focused iteration amid rapid frontier competition. With many other labs priced near 50% or lower due to less decisive recent results, trader consensus highlights Anthropic's current edge while noting that October resolution depends on further releases, benchmark stability, and potential surprises from Google, OpenAI, or xAI before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$1,535Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5 and related Claude 5 family releases in July 2026 have propelled its 58.5% market-implied probability by topping independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding, and agentic tool-use benchmarks. These models deliver superior long-context reasoning and professional task performance compared with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, Google's Gemini 3.5/3.6 Flash updates, and Meta's Llama iterations, reflecting focused iteration amid rapid frontier competition. With many other labs priced near 50% or lower due to less decisive recent results, trader consensus highlights Anthropic's current edge while noting that October resolution depends on further releases, benchmark stability, and potential surprises from Google, OpenAI, or xAI before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,535Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5 and related Claude 5 family releases in July 2026 have propelled its 58.5% market-implied probability by topping independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, SWE-Bench coding, and agentic tool-use benchmarks. These models deliver superior long-context reasoning and professional task performance compared with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, Google's Gemini 3.5/3.6 Flash updates, and Meta's Llama iterations, reflecting focused iteration amid rapid frontier competition. With many other labs priced near 50% or lower due to less decisive recent results, trader consensus highlights Anthropic's current edge while noting that October resolution depends on further releases, benchmark stability, and potential surprises from Google, OpenAI, or xAI before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes