**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLuma AI 46%
Kandinsky 45%
Pika 45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 45%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
Luma AI
46%
Kandinsky
45%
Pika
45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
45%
Genmo AI
45%
Runway
44%
Pruna
44%
Meta
44%
OpenAI
43%
Tencent
43%
SpaceXAI
43%
42%
Lightricks
28%
KlingAI
28%
MiniMax
27%
ByteDance
27%
Pixverse
26%
Luma AI 46%
Kandinsky 45%
Pika 45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 45%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
Luma AI
$0 Vol.
46%
Kandinsky
$0 Vol.
45%
Pika
$0 Vol.
45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$0 Vol.
45%
Genmo AI
$0 Vol.
45%
Runway
$0 Vol.
44%
Pruna
$0 Vol.
44%
Meta
$0 Vol.
44%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
43%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
43%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
43%
$0 Vol.
42%
Lightricks
$0 Vol.
28%
KlingAI
$0 Vol.
28%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
27%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
27%
Pixverse
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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