**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
14%
31 de octubre
59%
30 de noviembre
79%
$947 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$20 Vol.
14%
31 de octubre
$726 Vol.
59%
30 de noviembre
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$947Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$947Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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