OpenAI’s rapid revenue acceleration to a $40 billion annualized run rate by mid-2026, up from roughly $13 billion booked in 2025 and a $25 billion run rate earlier in the year, underpins the 40.5% market-implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, combined with a confidential S-1 filing in June and banker mandates to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, has reinforced trader consensus for a $1T-plus IPO. Persistent operating losses exceeding 50% of revenue and competition from Anthropic continue to weigh on margins, yet the low 10.8% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect expectations that the company will list in late 2026 or 2027 at elevated multiples driven by enterprise adoption and AI sector momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.5T+ 40.4%
1,25T–1,5T 22%
1T–1.25T 18.1%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 10.8%
$106,327 Vol.
$106,327 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
1%
500–750 mil millones
2%
750B–1T
10%
1T–1.25T
18%
1,25T–1,5T
22%
1.5T+
40%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
11%
1.5T+ 40.4%
1,25T–1,5T 22%
1T–1.25T 18.1%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 10.8%
$106,327 Vol.
$106,327 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
$8,050 Vol.
1%
500–750 mil millones
$9,889 Vol.
2%
750B–1T
$10,925 Vol.
10%
1T–1.25T
$15,107 Vol.
18%
1,25T–1,5T
$10,359 Vol.
22%
1.5T+
$27,961 Vol.
40%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
$24,036 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s rapid revenue acceleration to a $40 billion annualized run rate by mid-2026, up from roughly $13 billion booked in 2025 and a $25 billion run rate earlier in the year, underpins the 40.5% market-implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, combined with a confidential S-1 filing in June and banker mandates to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, has reinforced trader consensus for a $1T-plus IPO. Persistent operating losses exceeding 50% of revenue and competition from Anthropic continue to weigh on margins, yet the low 10.8% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect expectations that the company will list in late 2026 or 2027 at elevated multiples driven by enterprise adoption and AI sector momentum.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$106,327Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s rapid revenue acceleration to a $40 billion annualized run rate by mid-2026, up from roughly $13 billion booked in 2025 and a $25 billion run rate earlier in the year, underpins the 40.5% market-implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, combined with a confidential S-1 filing in June and banker mandates to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, has reinforced trader consensus for a $1T-plus IPO. Persistent operating losses exceeding 50% of revenue and competition from Anthropic continue to weigh on margins, yet the low 10.8% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect expectations that the company will list in late 2026 or 2027 at elevated multiples driven by enterprise adoption and AI sector momentum.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$106,327Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s rapid revenue acceleration to a $40 billion annualized run rate by mid-2026, up from roughly $13 billion booked in 2025 and a $25 billion run rate earlier in the year, underpins the 40.5% market-implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, combined with a confidential S-1 filing in June and banker mandates to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, has reinforced trader consensus for a $1T-plus IPO. Persistent operating losses exceeding 50% of revenue and competition from Anthropic continue to weigh on margins, yet the low 10.8% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect expectations that the company will list in late 2026 or 2027 at elevated multiples driven by enterprise adoption and AI sector momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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