Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic
84% probabilidad
$260,589 Vol.
$260,589 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Anthropic
84% probabilidad
$260,589 Vol.
$260,589 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volumen
$260,589Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$260,589Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿La capitalización de mercado de Anthropic será de 600.000 millones de dólares o más al cierre del mercado en el día de su salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027?
90%
Sí
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
41%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
17%
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes