OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the main factor anchoring the 79.5% “No” implied probability. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company’s advisers presented a choice between a late-2026 listing at a lower valuation or waiting, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejecting anything below the $1 trillion target as unacceptable. Recent private valuation sits at roughly $852 billion following a $7 billion secondary share sale completed in August, and revenue growth, while strong, has not yet demonstrated the trajectory needed for public-market pricing to clear that threshold by year-end. Traders view the lack of pre-IPO investor meetings and Altman’s stance as signaling deliberate patience, with key upcoming catalysts including any revised filing updates, earnings disclosures, or shifts in AI market sentiment that could alter timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
21% probabilidad
$296,232 Vol.
$296,232 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
21% probabilidad
$296,232 Vol.
$296,232 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the main factor anchoring the 79.5% “No” implied probability. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company’s advisers presented a choice between a late-2026 listing at a lower valuation or waiting, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejecting anything below the $1 trillion target as unacceptable. Recent private valuation sits at roughly $852 billion following a $7 billion secondary share sale completed in August, and revenue growth, while strong, has not yet demonstrated the trajectory needed for public-market pricing to clear that threshold by year-end. Traders view the lack of pre-IPO investor meetings and Altman’s stance as signaling deliberate patience, with key upcoming catalysts including any revised filing updates, earnings disclosures, or shifts in AI market sentiment that could alter timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volumen
$296,232Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the main factor anchoring the 79.5% “No” implied probability. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company’s advisers presented a choice between a late-2026 listing at a lower valuation or waiting, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejecting anything below the $1 trillion target as unacceptable. Recent private valuation sits at roughly $852 billion following a $7 billion secondary share sale completed in August, and revenue growth, while strong, has not yet demonstrated the trajectory needed for public-market pricing to clear that threshold by year-end. Traders view the lack of pre-IPO investor meetings and Altman’s stance as signaling deliberate patience, with key upcoming catalysts including any revised filing updates, earnings disclosures, or shifts in AI market sentiment that could alter timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volumen
$296,232Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s reported pivot toward a 2027 IPO to secure a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the main factor anchoring the 79.5% “No” implied probability. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company’s advisers presented a choice between a late-2026 listing at a lower valuation or waiting, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejecting anything below the $1 trillion target as unacceptable. Recent private valuation sits at roughly $852 billion following a $7 billion secondary share sale completed in August, and revenue growth, while strong, has not yet demonstrated the trajectory needed for public-market pricing to clear that threshold by year-end. Traders view the lack of pre-IPO investor meetings and Altman’s stance as signaling deliberate patience, with key upcoming catalysts including any revised filing updates, earnings disclosures, or shifts in AI market sentiment that could alter timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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