Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation persists into mid-2026, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting yet none advancing beyond committee or securing floor votes. The Trump administration's December 2025 executive order and subsequent national framework prioritize a minimally burdensome uniform policy, industry self-regulation via the AI Safety Institute, and preemption of stricter state rules over mandatory federal standards. A June 2026 House discussion draft of the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act signals interest in third-party audits but remains preliminary amid partisan divides, midterm pressures, and state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois that address transparency without prompting federal urgency. This environment sustains trader consensus favoring no enactment before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
10% probabilidad
$101,407 Vol.
$101,407 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
10% probabilidad
$101,407 Vol.
$101,407 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation persists into mid-2026, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting yet none advancing beyond committee or securing floor votes. The Trump administration's December 2025 executive order and subsequent national framework prioritize a minimally burdensome uniform policy, industry self-regulation via the AI Safety Institute, and preemption of stricter state rules over mandatory federal standards. A June 2026 House discussion draft of the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act signals interest in third-party audits but remains preliminary amid partisan divides, midterm pressures, and state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois that address transparency without prompting federal urgency. This environment sustains trader consensus favoring no enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$101,407Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation persists into mid-2026, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting yet none advancing beyond committee or securing floor votes. The Trump administration's December 2025 executive order and subsequent national framework prioritize a minimally burdensome uniform policy, industry self-regulation via the AI Safety Institute, and preemption of stricter state rules over mandatory federal standards. A June 2026 House discussion draft of the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act signals interest in third-party audits but remains preliminary amid partisan divides, midterm pressures, and state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois that address transparency without prompting federal urgency. This environment sustains trader consensus favoring no enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$101,407Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation persists into mid-2026, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting yet none advancing beyond committee or securing floor votes. The Trump administration's December 2025 executive order and subsequent national framework prioritize a minimally burdensome uniform policy, industry self-regulation via the AI Safety Institute, and preemption of stricter state rules over mandatory federal standards. A June 2026 House discussion draft of the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act signals interest in third-party audits but remains preliminary amid partisan divides, midterm pressures, and state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois that address transparency without prompting federal urgency. This environment sustains trader consensus favoring no enactment before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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