Recent benchmark leadership and agent-focused releases from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series have strengthened its position in coding and multi-step automation tasks, contributing to trader views on frontier labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and ChatGPT Work tools support strong agentic claims but face recent pauses on projects like Astra over security vulnerabilities, creating uncertainty. Google’s Gemini updates target efficient workflows, while Meta’s Muse Code agent and competitive pricing add pressure in the mid-tier. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot show gains on open-weight agent benchmarks, keeping the field fragmented. With resolution days away, market-implied odds near 50% across many entrants reflect the absence of decisive differentiation and potential for last-minute shifts from new evaluations or disclosures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOpenAI 29%
Moonshot 26%
DeepSeek 25%
Xiaomi 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
OpenAI
21%
Moonshot
26%
DeepSeek
25%
Xiaomi
25%
24%
Z.ai
24%
SpaceXAI
24%
Alibaba
23%
Mistral
22%
Nvidia
21%
Meta
21%
Meituan
21%
Amazon
21%
MiniMax
20%
ByteDance
20%
Baidu
20%
Microsoft
19%
Anthropic
19%
OpenAI 29%
Moonshot 26%
DeepSeek 25%
Xiaomi 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
OpenAI
$30 Vol.
21%
Moonshot
$10 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$10 Vol.
25%
Xiaomi
$10 Vol.
25%
$10 Vol.
24%
Z.ai
$10 Vol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$10 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$10 Vol.
23%
Mistral
$43 Vol.
22%
Nvidia
$72 Vol.
21%
Meta
$10 Vol.
21%
Meituan
$34 Vol.
21%
Amazon
$74 Vol.
21%
MiniMax
$58 Vol.
20%
ByteDance
$41 Vol.
20%
Baidu
$10 Vol.
20%
Microsoft
$54 Vol.
19%
Anthropic
$66 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership and agent-focused releases from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series have strengthened its position in coding and multi-step automation tasks, contributing to trader views on frontier labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and ChatGPT Work tools support strong agentic claims but face recent pauses on projects like Astra over security vulnerabilities, creating uncertainty. Google’s Gemini updates target efficient workflows, while Meta’s Muse Code agent and competitive pricing add pressure in the mid-tier. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot show gains on open-weight agent benchmarks, keeping the field fragmented. With resolution days away, market-implied odds near 50% across many entrants reflect the absence of decisive differentiation and potential for last-minute shifts from new evaluations or disclosures.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$562Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership and agent-focused releases from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series have strengthened its position in coding and multi-step automation tasks, contributing to trader views on frontier labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and ChatGPT Work tools support strong agentic claims but face recent pauses on projects like Astra over security vulnerabilities, creating uncertainty. Google’s Gemini updates target efficient workflows, while Meta’s Muse Code agent and competitive pricing add pressure in the mid-tier. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot show gains on open-weight agent benchmarks, keeping the field fragmented. With resolution days away, market-implied odds near 50% across many entrants reflect the absence of decisive differentiation and potential for last-minute shifts from new evaluations or disclosures.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$562Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership and agent-focused releases from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series have strengthened its position in coding and multi-step automation tasks, contributing to trader views on frontier labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and ChatGPT Work tools support strong agentic claims but face recent pauses on projects like Astra over security vulnerabilities, creating uncertainty. Google’s Gemini updates target efficient workflows, while Meta’s Muse Code agent and competitive pricing add pressure in the mid-tier. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot show gains on open-weight agent benchmarks, keeping the field fragmented. With resolution days away, market-implied odds near 50% across many entrants reflect the absence of decisive differentiation and potential for last-minute shifts from new evaluations or disclosures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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