Ongoing Houthi threats, including August strikes on Saudi-linked and other vessels, combined with selective carrier returns to Suez routing and exemptions for certain Chinese-linked traffic, have kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits volatile yet clustered near 200–230 vessels. Recent data show daily crossings averaging 30–45 amid elevated war-risk premiums, dark transits, and shadow-fleet activity, with totals for late August weeks ranging 254–302 before dipping. Closely matched market-implied odds around 190–229 reflect uncertainty over exact AIS-visible counts, potential last-minute reroutings, and any fresh incidents that could shift volumes below 190 or above 230 before week-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?
190-209 29%
210-229 23%
170-189 22%
230+ 5.0%
$37,387 Vol.
$37,387 Vol.
6 sep 2026
<170
1%
170-189
22%
190-209
28%
210-229
34%
230+
13%
190-209 29%
210-229 23%
170-189 22%
230+ 5.0%
$37,387 Vol.
$37,387 Vol.
6 sep 2026
<170
$1,390 Vol.
1%
170-189
$4,313 Vol.
22%
190-209
$5,968 Vol.
28%
210-229
$10,264 Vol.
34%
230+
$15,451 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats, including August strikes on Saudi-linked and other vessels, combined with selective carrier returns to Suez routing and exemptions for certain Chinese-linked traffic, have kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits volatile yet clustered near 200–230 vessels. Recent data show daily crossings averaging 30–45 amid elevated war-risk premiums, dark transits, and shadow-fleet activity, with totals for late August weeks ranging 254–302 before dipping. Closely matched market-implied odds around 190–229 reflect uncertainty over exact AIS-visible counts, potential last-minute reroutings, and any fresh incidents that could shift volumes below 190 or above 230 before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volumen
$37,387Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats, including August strikes on Saudi-linked and other vessels, combined with selective carrier returns to Suez routing and exemptions for certain Chinese-linked traffic, have kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits volatile yet clustered near 200–230 vessels. Recent data show daily crossings averaging 30–45 amid elevated war-risk premiums, dark transits, and shadow-fleet activity, with totals for late August weeks ranging 254–302 before dipping. Closely matched market-implied odds around 190–229 reflect uncertainty over exact AIS-visible counts, potential last-minute reroutings, and any fresh incidents that could shift volumes below 190 or above 230 before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$37,387Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi threats, including August strikes on Saudi-linked and other vessels, combined with selective carrier returns to Suez routing and exemptions for certain Chinese-linked traffic, have kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits volatile yet clustered near 200–230 vessels. Recent data show daily crossings averaging 30–45 amid elevated war-risk premiums, dark transits, and shadow-fleet activity, with totals for late August weeks ranging 254–302 before dipping. Closely matched market-implied odds around 190–229 reflect uncertainty over exact AIS-visible counts, potential last-minute reroutings, and any fresh incidents that could shift volumes below 190 or above 230 before week-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Transitarán entre 170 y 189 barcos el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb entre el 7 y el 13 de septiembre?
44%
Sí
¿Habrá entre 25 y 29 tránsitos diarios promedio por el Estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb el 31 de agosto?
69%
Sí
¿Habrá menos de 25 tránsitos diarios promedio por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb el 30 de septiembre?
47%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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