Persistent hot air mass advection over central Spain under a strong subtropical ridge has positioned 36°C and 37°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum, with near-equal trader consensus reflecting tight forecast spreads. Subsidence warming, clear skies promoting strong daytime radiative heating, and light winds limiting mixing support highs in this narrow range, consistent with late-summer climatology when Madrid often exceeds its 32–33°C August average. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing, boundary-layer moisture, or localized urban heat-island effects differentiate the two dominant bins, while probabilities below 6% for 38°C or higher align with limited intensification potential ahead of any frontal passage. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs on resolution day will refine the final observed maximum at the reference station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 2 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 2 de agosto?
36°C 48%
37°C 44%
38°C 6%
35°C 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 ago 2026
32°C o menos
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
48%
37°C
44%
38°C
6%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C o más
<1%
36°C 48%
37°C 44%
38°C 6%
35°C 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 ago 2026
32°C o menos
$560 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$292 Vol.
1%
34°C
$575 Vol.
2%
35°C
$1,054 Vol.
4%
36°C
$2,079 Vol.
48%
37°C
$2,030 Vol.
44%
38°C
$343 Vol.
6%
39°C
$477 Vol.
1%
40°C
$357 Vol.
1%
41°C
$216 Vol.
<1%
42°C o más
$230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent hot air mass advection over central Spain under a strong subtropical ridge has positioned 36°C and 37°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum, with near-equal trader consensus reflecting tight forecast spreads. Subsidence warming, clear skies promoting strong daytime radiative heating, and light winds limiting mixing support highs in this narrow range, consistent with late-summer climatology when Madrid often exceeds its 32–33°C August average. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing, boundary-layer moisture, or localized urban heat-island effects differentiate the two dominant bins, while probabilities below 6% for 38°C or higher align with limited intensification potential ahead of any frontal passage. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs on resolution day will refine the final observed maximum at the reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$8,215Fecha de finalización
2 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent hot air mass advection over central Spain under a strong subtropical ridge has positioned 36°C and 37°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum, with near-equal trader consensus reflecting tight forecast spreads. Subsidence warming, clear skies promoting strong daytime radiative heating, and light winds limiting mixing support highs in this narrow range, consistent with late-summer climatology when Madrid often exceeds its 32–33°C August average. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing, boundary-layer moisture, or localized urban heat-island effects differentiate the two dominant bins, while probabilities below 6% for 38°C or higher align with limited intensification potential ahead of any frontal passage. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs on resolution day will refine the final observed maximum at the reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$8,215Fecha de finalización
2 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent hot air mass advection over central Spain under a strong subtropical ridge has positioned 36°C and 37°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum, with near-equal trader consensus reflecting tight forecast spreads. Subsidence warming, clear skies promoting strong daytime radiative heating, and light winds limiting mixing support highs in this narrow range, consistent with late-summer climatology when Madrid often exceeds its 32–33°C August average. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing, boundary-layer moisture, or localized urban heat-island effects differentiate the two dominant bins, while probabilities below 6% for 38°C or higher align with limited intensification potential ahead of any frontal passage. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs on resolution day will refine the final observed maximum at the reference station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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