Persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aligning with market-implied odds favoring an average of 0–10 daily transits by end-September. High war-risk insurance premiums—running at multiples of 40 times normal or up to 10% of hull value—have rendered most commercial voyages uneconomical, while recent tit-for-tat strikes, including U.S. actions against Iranian tankers on September 5 and Iranian claims of retaliatory hits, reinforce operator caution. Data from sources like Kpler and straits.live indicate volumes remain at a fraction of the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 73 transits per day, with recent daily counts as low as four amid selective routing, sanctions exposure, and IRGC enforcement. Escalation risks ahead of month-end could further constrain flows, sustaining trader consensus around minimal activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz a finales de septiembre?
¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz a finales de septiembre?
5-10 48%
0-5 36%
10-15 7%
15-20 3.4%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
30 sep 2026
0-5
36%
5-10
48%
10-15
7%
15-20
3%
20-25
2%
25-30
2%
30+
3%
5-10 48%
0-5 36%
10-15 7%
15-20 3.4%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
30 sep 2026
0-5
$3,072 Vol.
36%
5-10
$2,225 Vol.
48%
10-15
$2,800 Vol.
7%
15-20
$737 Vol.
3%
20-25
$290 Vol.
2%
25-30
$4,266 Vol.
2%
30+
$298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aligning with market-implied odds favoring an average of 0–10 daily transits by end-September. High war-risk insurance premiums—running at multiples of 40 times normal or up to 10% of hull value—have rendered most commercial voyages uneconomical, while recent tit-for-tat strikes, including U.S. actions against Iranian tankers on September 5 and Iranian claims of retaliatory hits, reinforce operator caution. Data from sources like Kpler and straits.live indicate volumes remain at a fraction of the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 73 transits per day, with recent daily counts as low as four amid selective routing, sanctions exposure, and IRGC enforcement. Escalation risks ahead of month-end could further constrain flows, sustaining trader consensus around minimal activity.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volumen
$13,688Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aligning with market-implied odds favoring an average of 0–10 daily transits by end-September. High war-risk insurance premiums—running at multiples of 40 times normal or up to 10% of hull value—have rendered most commercial voyages uneconomical, while recent tit-for-tat strikes, including U.S. actions against Iranian tankers on September 5 and Iranian claims of retaliatory hits, reinforce operator caution. Data from sources like Kpler and straits.live indicate volumes remain at a fraction of the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 73 transits per day, with recent daily counts as low as four amid selective routing, sanctions exposure, and IRGC enforcement. Escalation risks ahead of month-end could further constrain flows, sustaining trader consensus around minimal activity.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$13,688Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aligning with market-implied odds favoring an average of 0–10 daily transits by end-September. High war-risk insurance premiums—running at multiples of 40 times normal or up to 10% of hull value—have rendered most commercial voyages uneconomical, while recent tit-for-tat strikes, including U.S. actions against Iranian tankers on September 5 and Iranian claims of retaliatory hits, reinforce operator caution. Data from sources like Kpler and straits.live indicate volumes remain at a fraction of the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 73 transits per day, with recent daily counts as low as four amid selective routing, sanctions exposure, and IRGC enforcement. Escalation risks ahead of month-end could further constrain flows, sustaining trader consensus around minimal activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes