**Trader sentiment for average daily ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at end-August 2026 centers on 25-29 vessels, reflecting the impact of the Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage imposed in late July.** Ongoing attacks, including strikes on vessels near Yanbu, have suppressed tanker flows while container and bulk traffic shows greater resilience, with many operators adopting dark transits or selective routing. Recent rolling data from sources such as Kpler and JMIC indicate daily averages stabilizing in the mid-20s to low-30s range through mid-to-late August after an initial 15-25% drop, well below the pre-blockade baseline near 50-60 vessels. Elevated war-risk premiums and compliance concerns continue to constrain volumes, supporting the market-implied odds that position 25-29 as the consensus outcome amid persistent regional tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb a finales de agosto?
¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb a finales de agosto?
25-29 71%
<25 20.0%
35-39 1.6%
40+ <1%
$37,595 Vol.
$37,595 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
23%
25-29
71%
30-34
<1%
35-39
2%
40+
<1%
25-29 71%
<25 20.0%
35-39 1.6%
40+ <1%
$37,595 Vol.
$37,595 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
$7,587 Vol.
23%
25-29
$9,267 Vol.
71%
30-34
$8,870 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$5,375 Vol.
2%
40+
$6,497 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for average daily ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at end-August 2026 centers on 25-29 vessels, reflecting the impact of the Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage imposed in late July.**
Ongoing attacks, including strikes on vessels near Yanbu, have suppressed tanker flows while container and bulk traffic shows greater resilience, with many operators adopting dark transits or selective routing. Recent rolling data from sources such as Kpler and JMIC indicate daily averages stabilizing in the mid-20s to low-30s range through mid-to-late August after an initial 15-25% drop, well below the pre-blockade baseline near 50-60 vessels. Elevated war-risk premiums and compliance concerns continue to constrain volumes, supporting the market-implied odds that position 25-29 as the consensus outcome amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$37,595Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFuente de resolución
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for average daily ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at end-August 2026 centers on 25-29 vessels, reflecting the impact of the Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage imposed in late July.**
Ongoing attacks, including strikes on vessels near Yanbu, have suppressed tanker flows while container and bulk traffic shows greater resilience, with many operators adopting dark transits or selective routing. Recent rolling data from sources such as Kpler and JMIC indicate daily averages stabilizing in the mid-20s to low-30s range through mid-to-late August after an initial 15-25% drop, well below the pre-blockade baseline near 50-60 vessels. Elevated war-risk premiums and compliance concerns continue to constrain volumes, supporting the market-implied odds that position 25-29 as the consensus outcome amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$37,595Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFuente de resolución
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for average daily ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at end-August 2026 centers on 25-29 vessels, reflecting the impact of the Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage imposed in late July.** Ongoing attacks, including strikes on vessels near Yanbu, have suppressed tanker flows while container and bulk traffic shows greater resilience, with many operators adopting dark transits or selective routing. Recent rolling data from sources such as Kpler and JMIC indicate daily averages stabilizing in the mid-20s to low-30s range through mid-to-late August after an initial 15-25% drop, well below the pre-blockade baseline near 50-60 vessels. Elevated war-risk premiums and compliance concerns continue to constrain volumes, supporting the market-implied odds that position 25-29 as the consensus outcome amid persistent regional tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Habrá menos de 25 tránsitos diarios promedio por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb el 30 de septiembre?
47%
Sí
¿Transitarán entre 190 y 209 barcos el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb entre el 31 de agosto y el 6 de septiembre?
40%
Sí
¿Transitarán entre 170 y 189 barcos el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb entre el 7 y el 13 de septiembre?
35%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes