Recent polls ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt show the AfD at 41–43 percent, well ahead of the CDU at 22–23 percent and Die Linke at 11–13 percent, with the SPD, Greens, and others near or below the five-percent threshold. These figures imply the AfD will likely secure the largest share of seats but fall short of an absolute majority once smaller parties enter the parliament and dilute the overall distribution. The party’s state branch remains classified as extremist by authorities, reinforcing the longstanding refusal of other parties to consider coalitions. Traders’ consensus on an 82 percent probability against an outright majority reflects this consistent polling range and the structural barriers of Germany’s electoral system rather than any single late-campaign shift.