Nathalie Roy holds a clear lead in trader assessments for the Montarville seat in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, reflecting her status as the longtime incumbent for the Coalition avenir Québec. Roy, who has represented the riding since 2012 and previously served as National Assembly president, confirmed her candidacy in mid-August after the writs were dropped on August 27. Projections from early September place CAQ support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range, ahead of the Parti québécois candidate Jean-François Cloutier. Other contenders, including Liberal Mathieu Lavoie and Québec solidaire’s Ginette Langlois, register far lower implied probabilities consistent with historical vote shares in this Montérégie riding. The nomination period closes September 17, leaving limited time for late developments to alter the consensus.