Nathalie Roy, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and former National Assembly president seeking a fifth term, leads trader pricing in the Montarville riding ahead of the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election. The riding has leaned CAQ in recent cycles, with Roy's long tenure and local profile providing a structural edge over challengers including Parti Québécois candidate Jean-François Cloutier, a former journalist, as well as Liberal Mathieu Lavoie, Québec solidaire's Ginette Langlois, and smaller-party entrants. Province-wide polling shows the CAQ trailing overall, yet Montarville-specific projections from models such as 338Canada assign the incumbent party strong seat odds based on historical vote patterns and limited recent shifts in the riding. The writ period, which began in late August, has not yet produced major local developments that would alter this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Nathalie Roy 69%
Jean-François Cloutier 33%
Mathieu Lavoie <1%
Ginette Langlois <1%
Nathalie Roy
69%
Jean-François Cloutier
33%
Mathieu Lavoie
1%
Ginette Langlois
<1%
Nathalie Roy 69%
Jean-François Cloutier 33%
Mathieu Lavoie <1%
Ginette Langlois <1%
Nathalie Roy
69%
Jean-François Cloutier
33%
Mathieu Lavoie
1%
Ginette Langlois
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Nathalie Roy, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and former National Assembly president seeking a fifth term, leads trader pricing in the Montarville riding ahead of the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election. The riding has leaned CAQ in recent cycles, with Roy's long tenure and local profile providing a structural edge over challengers including Parti Québécois candidate Jean-François Cloutier, a former journalist, as well as Liberal Mathieu Lavoie, Québec solidaire's Ginette Langlois, and smaller-party entrants. Province-wide polling shows the CAQ trailing overall, yet Montarville-specific projections from models such as 338Canada assign the incumbent party strong seat odds based on historical vote patterns and limited recent shifts in the riding. The writ period, which began in late August, has not yet produced major local developments that would alter this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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