Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于纽约市8月18日的最低温度？
纽约市8月18日的最低温度？
74-75°F 70%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 5%
78-79°F 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
63°F或更低
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67华氏度
<1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
70%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F或更高
<1%
74-75°F 70%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 5%
78-79°F 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
63°F或更低
$150 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$150 交易量
<1%
66-67华氏度
$201 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$31 交易量
3%
70-71°F
$175 交易量
5%
72-73°F
$262 交易量
25%
74-75°F
$467 交易量
70%
76-77°F
$1,763 交易量
2%
78-79°F
$834 交易量
3%
80-81°F
$1,628 交易量
<1%
82°F或更高
$421 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
交易量
$6,082结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,082结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETRecent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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