Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mild overnight period for New York City on August 15, with the daily minimum temperature likely falling in the 70–73 °F range under partly cloudy skies and light northwest flow. Mid-August climatology places the 1991–2020 normal low near 70 °F at Central Park, and the broader August 2026 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors above-average temperatures across the Northeast, reducing the chance of significant radiational cooling. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values, with only modest potential for a brief dip if clearer skies develop late in the night. Traders have priced the 70–71 °F bin highest because it aligns closely with both the seasonal baseline and the latest short-range guidance, while lower or higher bins reflect smaller probabilities tied to forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point trends.